Omar Minaya's highway robbery

On September 18, 2007, I analyzed whether or not I thought the Minnesota Twins would ultimately trade All Star starting pitcher Johan Santana. At the end of the article, I concluded that I felt that they *should* but that they probably wouldn't.

Well, I was wrong. On both counts.

We can skip the back story; Santana had one more year on his contract and the Twins are clearly in a state of flux. He's the best pitcher on the planet, sports a ridiculous changeup, and he's left-handed. Oh yeah, and he's not even 30. Once the Twins decided that Santana would be on the market, everybody knew the players - it was probably going to be any team that could afford the bounty in prospects plus the cost of a lengthy contract extension that would approach $150 million over anywhere between 5-7 years. That set of critera seemingly narrowed the list to the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, and White Sox, give or take.

By early December reports were already surfacing that the Yankees were interested, of course. Starting pitching has been a weakness of theirs since they were able to trot out starters named Clemens, Pettitte, Hernandez, Wells, or Cone on any given day. They made it clear that Joba Chamberlain was off the table from the get-go. Not that they had a real need for Santana, but once the Red Sox knew the Yankees were in on him, Boston told Minnesota that they too were interested. Looking back, did Boston EVER want Santana or were they just trying to drive the price up for the Yankees? I strongly sense the latter, for what ended up transpiring.

After a bit of jockeying, the Twins wanted a package led by SP Phil Hughes, CF Melky Cabrera, and SP Ian Kennedy from the Yankees. You could tell that new Twins GM Bill Smith had Yankees GM Brian Cashman on one line and Red Sox GM Theo Epstein on the other, putting each on hold to play both sides against eachother. Every step of the way, Boston matched the Yankees' offer. When all was said and done, media reports said that the Yankees were close... then the Red Sox were close... and so on, and so forth. Boston had two packages on the table; one featuring lefty SP Jon Lester plus top prospects SS Jed Lowrie and P Justin Masterson; the other with CF Jacoby Ellsbury in place of Lester.

At a certain point the Twins reached a standstill and neither Boston nor New York were going to offer anything more than what was on the table. The Twins tried to get Lester and Ellsbury in the same package to no avail; they pushed hard for Ian Kennedy. Epstein and Cashman held their ground. Finally, the Yankees moved first and took Phil Hughes (the real prize of their offer) off the table. I assume that's about the time that Bill Smith called Epstein and was probably ready to accept either offer; Boston then wasn't going to part with as much because they knew New York had pulled Hughes.

Tired of being played against one another (or, conversely, Boston had just effectively done their job of driving the Yankees' price up OR making sure they didn't get Santana at all costs) neither Boston nor New York had any interest in making a deal. New York had been vocal about not wanting to part with Hughes AND have to pay the kind of money Santana was going to command. That's when both of the Twins' potential trade partners fell through. With February around the corner and spring training rapidly approaching, the Twins needed to either get the deal done, or play the cards they were dealt and head into 2008 with Johan.

Enter the Mets. Sensing that Bill Smith was getting desperate to make a move, GM Omar Minaya negotiated and ultimately secured a deal for the best pitcher alive without sending Minnesota anybody on his major league roster OR his top prospect (OF Fernando Martinez). Pitchers Philip Humber (still not 100% back from Tommy John surgery), Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, and OF Carlos Gomez netted the Mets a new ace. Throw in about $145 million, and the deal was done for New York.

A classic case of overplaying your hand. Will these four Mets prospects amount to anything? Time will tell. But one can only assume that either Hughes or Lester will probably have better careers than Humber, Mulvey, or Guerra. And Jacoby Ellsbury, Coco Crisp (also rumored in a Boston deal), and maybe even Melky Cabrera will likely have better runs than the all-speed, no-power Gomez.

One more thing to think about - the Twins actually got more for Matt Garza from Tampa Bay than they did for Johan Santana. Wouldn't it have made more sense to go for it in 2008 and snag a few compensatory picks for Santana after he signed elsewhere after the season ended?