As the Minnesota Twins are about to enter the 2007 offseason with no playoff birth, they are forced to entertain an uncomfortable situation: what to do with multiple Cy Young Award winning pitcher Johan Santana?
Santana signed with the Houston Astros as a free agent out of his native Venezuela in 1995, at age 16. He toiled in the Astros' farm system before being selected by the Florida Marlins in the 1999 Rule 5 draft and traded to the Twins that very same day. He was used as both a starter and reliever during callups with the Twins from 2000-2003. In 2004, he won his first Cy Young Award for playoff-bound Minnesota, posting a 20-6 record, along with league-leading totals of 256 strikeouts and a 2.61 ERA.
He followed up that season with another sub-3.00 ERA in 2005, going 16-7 and once again leading the world in strikeouts. In 2006, he won his second Cy Young, sporting a 19-6 record and 2.77 ERA. At this point he'd developed into the best pitcher in baseball, a high velocity left-hander with a devastating changeup. As of 2007, he's made three consecutive All Star games and has more strikeouts than anybody in baseball since 2004.
The 28 year old enters 2008 as his final season under the Minnesota organization's control, before he can test free agency for the first time. There's clearly no better pitcher in baseball. He's dominant in the second half every year, and is yet to spend time on the disabled list. Essentially, he can name his price after next year and somebody's going to pay up. For as dominant as he's been in the American League, imagine the numbers he'd put up in the lighter-hitting National League? He could have a legitimate chance of winning 25 games for a contending NL team.
This puts the Twins in quite a predicament. Their low budget clearly can't afford him beyond next season, but he's still quite a piece of the puzzle if they hope to make a run. With the return of potential ace Francisco Liriano from Tommy John surgery, as well as the further improved Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, and Kevin Slowey, the Twins have the chance for a fantastic young rotation in 2008. This is also one of the final seasons they'll have with young studs Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. In other words, this may be the last chance they have to be highly competitive for the next few years. CF Torii Hunter will almost certainly leave after this season due to their restrictive budget.
The flipside is trading Santana this winter. The return could be huge; in all likelihood, the Twins could probably get back a premier prospect (or two), a major league-ready hitter, and a pitcher. Every team would like to have him - it'd just have to be one with the prospects to get it done. Would the Yankees trade somebody like Phil Hughes ina package for one year of Johan? Would the Red Sox move Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury? Maybe the Devil Rays would try and swap some of their outfield depth?
Either way, Johan Santana will not be pitching for the Twins in 2009. Management has to step back and evaluate whether or not they can make a serious push in 2008. That likely depends on the health of Francisco Liriano, and whether or not they can make some other moves to add some more pop to the lineup. When Rondell White is your everyday DH and hitting around .150, you've got serious trouble. Their outfield is clogged with terrible hitters. Third base, a power position, is occupied by Nick Punto and his .205 batting average (and one home run!) They need to make some serious moves to upgrade this offense to have a chance to contend. Doesn't matter if your pitching staff has a collective 3 ERA for the season, with this offense (and subtracting 100+ RBIs from Torii Hunter) they won't be able to contend.
So, the question is: will the Twins trade Johan Santana this winter? Ultimately, I don't think they will. But for the good of the organization, they should.
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This is probably ( next to "Will Arod opt out?" ), the biggest question going into this offseason. After the trade of Castillo ( ? ), to the Mets. Johan was furious. I seem to recall him saying he want's out of there. Things like "this is why we can't win", etc. It puts Ryan in a pretty good place for trades though. If you get a chance to sign Santana. YOU GIVE UP WHOEVER THEY WANT FOR HIM. If Liriano returns back to form next season. The Twins need to keep Santana. That gives them the best #1 and 2 in the game. Possibly rivaling Schilling and Johnson's 2001, 300 SO a piece season.
The Twins for some reason don't have a payroll, rather they have an owner who won't spend on the team. Carl Pohlad is one of the richest owners in the game. Rivaling/possibly surpassing both J W Henry and George Steinbrenner. If they want to make their new stadium work they better resign him. I could see the fan backlash being massive.
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