Thoughts on the congressional hearings

So I watched a good portion of the congressional hearings yesterday featuring select members of the United States Congress grilling Roger Clemens and former trainer Brian McNamee in a "he said / he said" showdown. You know the back story - McNamee explicitly named Clemens in the Mitchell Report; Clemens is either innocent, a big liar, and/or far too much an egomaniac to let these things be said about him and ruin his legacy as one of the top modern pitchers in history. A couple of thoughts:

• Roger looked pretty uncomfortable. I can't say I'd feel much better sitting amongst the group he was in.


• McNamee just looks like a shady character to me. But he seems more believable than Clemens - doesn't that speak volumes?


• Andy Pettitte needed to be there. He probably chose to rat out his friend rather than perjure himself under oath, and by sending a signed affidavit rather than physically appearing, he avoided a showdown with Clemens. This way Roger was able to play the "he doesn't know what he's talking about / he misunderstood" card since Pettitte isn't there to refute this.


• I thought it was very unprofessional the way that several members of Congress led into their questions by first telling Clemens that he was one of their favorite players, or apologizing to him for the fact that they were about to start grilling him.


• Clemens had a lot of nerve interrupting Congressman Waxman during the closing statements.


• Not that I'm surprised, but the partisanship shown by those asking questions was pretty blatant. Republicans backed Clemens and attacked McNamee as a drug-pusher; Democrats were anti-Roger. I've heard Clemens is a friend of the Republican party, so no surprise. But it sickens me that partisanship always takes precedence, even in issues that should glaringly be non-partisan.

The fallout from all of this? I suspect that they will further look into this case and potentially turn it over to the US Department of Justice if they feel Clemens has perjured himself. I'd be inclined to say he'll never face jail time - then again, look at Marion Jones.

Either way, Roger Clemens is already guilty in the court of public opinion, and likely won't see the Hall of Fame again unless he buys a ticket.

Omar Minaya's highway robbery

On September 18, 2007, I analyzed whether or not I thought the Minnesota Twins would ultimately trade All Star starting pitcher Johan Santana. At the end of the article, I concluded that I felt that they *should* but that they probably wouldn't.

Well, I was wrong. On both counts.

We can skip the back story; Santana had one more year on his contract and the Twins are clearly in a state of flux. He's the best pitcher on the planet, sports a ridiculous changeup, and he's left-handed. Oh yeah, and he's not even 30. Once the Twins decided that Santana would be on the market, everybody knew the players - it was probably going to be any team that could afford the bounty in prospects plus the cost of a lengthy contract extension that would approach $150 million over anywhere between 5-7 years. That set of critera seemingly narrowed the list to the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, and White Sox, give or take.

By early December reports were already surfacing that the Yankees were interested, of course. Starting pitching has been a weakness of theirs since they were able to trot out starters named Clemens, Pettitte, Hernandez, Wells, or Cone on any given day. They made it clear that Joba Chamberlain was off the table from the get-go. Not that they had a real need for Santana, but once the Red Sox knew the Yankees were in on him, Boston told Minnesota that they too were interested. Looking back, did Boston EVER want Santana or were they just trying to drive the price up for the Yankees? I strongly sense the latter, for what ended up transpiring.

After a bit of jockeying, the Twins wanted a package led by SP Phil Hughes, CF Melky Cabrera, and SP Ian Kennedy from the Yankees. You could tell that new Twins GM Bill Smith had Yankees GM Brian Cashman on one line and Red Sox GM Theo Epstein on the other, putting each on hold to play both sides against eachother. Every step of the way, Boston matched the Yankees' offer. When all was said and done, media reports said that the Yankees were close... then the Red Sox were close... and so on, and so forth. Boston had two packages on the table; one featuring lefty SP Jon Lester plus top prospects SS Jed Lowrie and P Justin Masterson; the other with CF Jacoby Ellsbury in place of Lester.

At a certain point the Twins reached a standstill and neither Boston nor New York were going to offer anything more than what was on the table. The Twins tried to get Lester and Ellsbury in the same package to no avail; they pushed hard for Ian Kennedy. Epstein and Cashman held their ground. Finally, the Yankees moved first and took Phil Hughes (the real prize of their offer) off the table. I assume that's about the time that Bill Smith called Epstein and was probably ready to accept either offer; Boston then wasn't going to part with as much because they knew New York had pulled Hughes.

Tired of being played against one another (or, conversely, Boston had just effectively done their job of driving the Yankees' price up OR making sure they didn't get Santana at all costs) neither Boston nor New York had any interest in making a deal. New York had been vocal about not wanting to part with Hughes AND have to pay the kind of money Santana was going to command. That's when both of the Twins' potential trade partners fell through. With February around the corner and spring training rapidly approaching, the Twins needed to either get the deal done, or play the cards they were dealt and head into 2008 with Johan.

Enter the Mets. Sensing that Bill Smith was getting desperate to make a move, GM Omar Minaya negotiated and ultimately secured a deal for the best pitcher alive without sending Minnesota anybody on his major league roster OR his top prospect (OF Fernando Martinez). Pitchers Philip Humber (still not 100% back from Tommy John surgery), Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, and OF Carlos Gomez netted the Mets a new ace. Throw in about $145 million, and the deal was done for New York.

A classic case of overplaying your hand. Will these four Mets prospects amount to anything? Time will tell. But one can only assume that either Hughes or Lester will probably have better careers than Humber, Mulvey, or Guerra. And Jacoby Ellsbury, Coco Crisp (also rumored in a Boston deal), and maybe even Melky Cabrera will likely have better runs than the all-speed, no-power Gomez.

One more thing to think about - the Twins actually got more for Matt Garza from Tampa Bay than they did for Johan Santana. Wouldn't it have made more sense to go for it in 2008 and snag a few compensatory picks for Santana after he signed elsewhere after the season ended?

Opinions on some transactions...

Weighing in on some of the more significant transactions so far in the MLB offseason...

Free Agent signings

Brewers sign C Jason Kendall to a one year contract worth $4.25M

After trading Johnny Estrada to the Mets, I guess they decided to go with defense over pop at the plate, but Kendall just can't hit. And for over $4 million? I would have probably went after Paul Lo Duca, a bit more pop for roughly the same amount of money. But that's just me. Grade: C

Reds sign CL Francisco Cordero to a four year contract worth $46M

Wow, after basically given to Milwaukee by the Rangers, one good year makes the guy an $11.5M per year pitcher? Clearly more indicative of the market - but overpaying has been the norm this year. Well, maybe it's not overpaying if EVERYBODY is doing it - it's just the baseball economy. At any rate, Cordero was clearly the best closer available this offseason (since nobody really thought Mariano Rivera would leave the Yankees) and I like the fit for Cincinnati. Their bullpen is still suspect, but sliding David Weathers back into the more comfortable 8th inning setup role should give them about 3 more wins than last year. Unfortunately, now the Reds probably don't have any more money to spend this offseason. Grade: B+

Yankees re-signed C Jorge Posada to a four year contract worth $52.4M

Nobody really expected Posada to leave the Yankees, except maybe for the crosstown Mets. But the Bronx Bombers threw enough cash at him to make sure that wouldn't happen. Four years for a 36 year old catcher though? By year three (maybe even the latter part of two) Posada will likely be the starting 1B or DH for New York. He had a career year with the bat, so no reason to think the decline will happen overnight - but with older catchers, you just never know. Risky move. Grade: B-, if only for the contract length. A two year deal would have been an A+ move. Four years is far too long.

Rays signed CL Troy Percival to a two year contract worth $8M

I love this deal. Love it. Percival pitched to a 1.80 ERA for the Cardinals in 2007, a year after retiring due to arm troubles. He got a clean slate of health by the Rays' physicians prior to the deal - and at $4M per, this was a no-brainer. The caveat: the Cardinals' reluctance to use Percival on back-to-back days may be an indication that they felt either his arm couldn't handle it or his conditioning was poor. For the Rays' sake, they hope it was the latter. With Al Reyes and Percival at the back of the bullpen, Tampa Bay won't be blowing as many saves as years past. Grade: A

Astros signed 2B Kaz Matsui to a three year contract worth $16.5M

Why? Matsui has largely been terrible since coming to America with the Mets, and aside from part of last year (and really only at Coors Field) he's consistently remained fairly terrible. If I were the Astros I would have re-signed Mark Loretta and handed him the starting job, or finally promoted Chris Burke. Looks like Burke will get traded after waiting years for Craig Biggio to retire. Life's not fair! Grade: D


Trades

Twins traded SP Matt Garza, P Eduardo Morlan, and SS Jason Bartlett to Rays for OF Delmon Young, OF Jason Pridie, and IF Brendan Harris

Not often do you see teams swapping young potential stars, if only for the factor that they don't want them to come back and bite them in the rear down the road. Tampa turned its surplus of outfielders into a major piece of its 2008 rotation by acquiring Garza from Minnesota, a team with a dearth of young starting pitching. Very even. Beyond the two marquee names, the trade favors Tampa, improving their SS defense and production with Bartlett and getting the flame-throwing prospect Morlan. I'll call this one in favor of Tampa, but I like it for both teams.

Mets traded OF Lastings Milledge to Nationals for OF Ryan Church and C Brian Schneider

I had to do about a triple-take when I saw the headline for this. Did the Mets really trade Lastings Milledge for NOTHING? Apparently so. As recently as 2005, Milledge was going to be the centerpiece in a deal for Manny Ramirez, but negotiations fell apart. He, along with Aaron Heilman, was going to Oakland for Barry Zito, but that never happened. A few cups of coffee with the Mets since, and the guy's value plummets so low that he's traded for one of the worst hitting catchers in baseball and a fourth OF / platoon player? A head scratcher, for sure, especially considering the Mets acquired Johnny Estrada to be their starting catcher a few weeks prior to this trade. With Milledge, Washington gets an outfielder with lightning-fast bat speed and an attitude problem, which is a gamble I'm sure they were willing to take for what they gave up. Nationals take this in a landslide.

Nationals traded P Glenn Gibson to Rays for OF Elijah Dukes

I must admit that I've never heard of Gibson. This trade was a case of the Rays basically giving Dukes away, after his poor attitude and legal run-ins cost him his good graces in Tampa. He wasn't going to play for Tampa again, so getting anything was a bonus. Still, he's young and has upside, so make this two in a row for the Nationals.

White Sox traded 1B Chris Carter to Diamondbacks for OF Carlos Quentin

Carlos Quentin was a highly regarded prospect for Arizona whom they balked at throwing into the Randy Johnson deal with the Yankees last year. He spent the year up with the big club in 2007 and didn't really impress, spending time on the DL and battling general ineffectiveness at the plate. Carter played the year at single A, hitting 25 homers and nearly knocking in 100 runs. The jury is out on this one, but since Carter seems to be so far away, I'm giving this to Chicago. After all, depending on how things shake out, Quentin may be their starting left fielder on opening day 2008.

Where's A-Rod headed?

The sweepstakes has begun. As I (and everybody else in the free world) predicted, Alex Rodriguez opted out of his contract with the New York Yankees during the clinching game 4 of the World Series. Superagent Scott Boras' stipulation combined with a monster season for Rodriguez is about to lead to a BIG payday for the soon-to-be three-time AL MVP.

But where's he going next to rack up more stats and chase the home run record?

Here are my thoughts. There's only a small group of teams who can and would pay the bounty on A-Rod. Boras is selling A-Rod as a player who's going to recoup the cost of his contract for the team that's going to pay it via the revenue generated for the franchise. Having a regional sports network (RSN) is a key to this scenario; the teams that own their own RSNs reap the benefits of the exclusive rights to the majority of their broadcasts of their games on television. So let's take a look at the teams with RSNs:

New England Sports Network - Boston Red Sox
Mid-Atlantic Sports Network - Baltimore Orioles & Washington Nationals
YES Network - New York Yankees
Rogers Sports Network - Toronto Blue Jays
Turner Broadcast Station - Atlanta Braves
Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia - Philadelphia Phillies
Comcast SportsNet Chicago - Chicago White Sox & Chicago Cubs
Royals Sports Television Network - Kansas City Royals
SportsNet NY - New York Mets
Sportstime Ohio (STO) - Cleveland Indians
WGN - Chicago Cubs

The Nationals, Blue Jays, Braves, Phillies, Royals, and Indians don't have the type of payroll to support A-Rod - so let's take them off the list.

Let's also look at the top 10 payrolls in Major League Baseball in the 2007 season, to get an idea of the teams with the money and willingness to spend it on a player that's likely going to cost at LEAST 25% of their 2008 payroll:

1) New York Yankees
2) Boston Red Sox
3) New York Mets
4) Chicago White Sox
5) Los Angeles Angels
6) Los Angeles Dodgers
7) Seattle Mariners
8) Chicago Cubs
9) Detroit Tigers
10) Baltimore Orioles

Collectively, between the two lists, you're getting an idea of the type of team that's going to be in the market for Rodriguez. The overlap is the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Orioles, White Sox, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, Mariners, and Tigers.

Here's my list, from 10 to 1, in order of least likely to sign A-Rod versus most likely.

10) Seattle Mariners - A-Rod is not well liked in the pacific northwest after unceremoniously leaving Seattle for the Texas Rangers. Going after Rodriguez would likely alienate the fanbase. Besides, with 3B Adrian Beltre and SS Yuniesky Betancourt, the Mariners appear to be set on the left side of the infield for a few years.

9) Baltimore Orioles - The Orioles are in a state of flux right now, having not experienced much success in almost 10 years. Their roster is old and overpaid. I can't see signing A-Rod would help the cause - they're better off trading some of their position players and rebuilding with young pitching. Hopefully new GM Andy MacPhail feels the same way, or else it's going to be quite a while in the doldrums for the Orioles' faithful.

8) New York Yankees - No sir. If the organization has any integrity, they shouldn't be listed here as a possibility. Rodriguez opted out without even meeting with them, and GM Brian Cashman has repeatedly stated that if he opted out, the Yankees were not going to be bidding. With Florida 3B Miguel Cabrera on the trade market as well as other possibilites (the White Sox' Joe Crede, Rockies' Garrett Atkins, Rangers' Hank Blalock) the Yankees can afford to pass on A-Rod and either trade for one of the aforementioned, go with an in-house option, or sign somebody like Pedro Feliz. The caveat here is that the Yankees are going to offer Rodriguez arbitration to be sure that they get compensatory draft picks when he signs elsewhere. If Boras finds that he won't be paid what he wants, and Rodriguez accepts arbitration, the Yankees wind up with him for another year at probably around $30 million. But this is also a long shot.

7) Chicago Cubs - With a new ownership in transition and a LOT of money tied up in several recent acquisitions, resignings, or extensions, I doubt the Cubs will be able to throw $30+ at A-Rod this winter. They owe an awful lot of money to Carlos Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Ted Lilly. However, A-Rod did love playing for Lou Piniella back in Seattle...

6) Boston Red Sox - I don't see it happening. After winning the World Series with Mike Lowell at third base, why mess with success? Boston fans hate Rodriguez and love Lowell; Lowell comes at roughly 1/3 of the cost, and the guy just won the MVP. His hard-nosed, gritty clutch play is loved in the Boston clubhouse. I'd be willing to bet he'll resign with Boston for about 3 years and close to $40 million - a little more than 1 year of A-Rod!

5) Chicago White Sox - GM Kenny Williams has commented that he likes Rodriguez in the past, and A-Rod almost seemed like a good fit until the Sox resigned Juan Uribe to play short today. Joe Crede will likely be traded and youngster Josh Fields should be manning the hot corner for the White Sox in 2008. They could certainly be a darkhorse candidate and I wouldn't count them out.

4) Los Angeles Dodgers - I have a hard time believing that Dodgers' GM Ned Colletti will bother with a Scott Boras client again so soon, after JD Drew burned him last offseason by opting out of his contract to sign with the Red Sox. Dodger Stadium isn't a great hitters' park, but there is a hole at 3B as new manager Joe Torre will not likely want to go with young 3B prospect Andy LaRoche.

3) Detroit Tigers - Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has a good working relationship with Scott Boras, with a few of his clients under contract (Ivan Rodriguez, Kenny Rogers, Magglio Ordonez) and a definite hole at 3B (Brandon Inge). The Tigers have shown a willingless to spend money in the recent past and have become much more competitive for it.

2) Los Angeles Angels - The Angels have had a hole at third base ever since Troy Glaus left a few seasons ago. A-Rod is almost a perfect fit - a huge bat to hit behind Vladimir Guerrerro. He'd make their lineup ferocious. The one problem is that I don't know how well Guerrerro would appreciate making roughly 1/3 the money that A-Rod would be making, especially since they've been comparable hitters the past few years. Maybe a bit of an extension for Guerrerro would make him feel better?

1) New York Mets - Yep, this is my pick. GM Omar Minaya loves Latino players... A-Rod was a Mets fan growing up... it works out too well. They certainly don't mind spending money and this move would push their franchise onto the back pages of the New York papers by making the kind of splash that helps their franchise AND takes the best player from the rival Yankees. The marketing in New York would be absolutely huge. My only concern would be the spacious Shea Stadium, but Scott Boras could probably have them move the walls in on the soon-to-be-built Citi Field for A-Rod's sake. The major dilemma, of course, is where to play him. One thing's for sure: Jose Reyes isn't moving. I doubt they'd put Rodriguez at 2B and make him change positions again; most likely current 3B David Wright would move somewhere - right field? Second base? First base? Regardless, that should be enough to put the Mets over the top in 2008 and for years to come.

Predictions: World Series

Well, not a bad LCS round for me - I had Colorado in 5 and Boston in 7. I was off by one game total - I'll take that!

Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox

The first question that will need to be answered is, of course, whether or not the Rockies will be able to sustain the momentum of only losing one of their last 22 games. Beyond that, this could very well be a slugfest of a series. The middle of Colorado's order, anchored by likely MVP Matt Holliday, is ferocious; on the other side, JD Drew has been on fire to compliment the middle of the Red Sox order, including ol' faithfuls Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. The winner of this series will be decided by the pitching. I have to give the bullpen edge to Colorado; however, Boston's starters are more experienced. I think the layoff will have the Rockies' pitching rested and rearing to go - if the hitters can stay on their game, they'll give Boston a handful. Ultimately, I'm taking Colorado in 6.

Should the Yankees retain Joe Torre?

As the latest Yankee postseason failure has recently come to an end, Yankee fans are dividing into two groups - those who vehemently defend manager Joe Torre and those who are looking for some new blood from the position he's held since the 1996 season.

By this point, anybody reading this probably knows Torre's track record: Twelve straight postseason appearances. Ten division titles. Six World Series appearances - four world championships. Hard to argue with that, right?

Let's keep something in mind though. New York has and always will be a "what have you done for me lately?" kinda town.

Now, let's break Torre's Yankee tenure into two groups: 1996-2001, and then 2002-2007. The former group: 6 playoff apperances, 5 division titles, 5 World Series appearances, 4 championships. The latter group: 6 playoff appearances, 5 division titles, 1 World Series appearance, ZERO championships. That's zilch, nada, none.. you get it. Keep that in mind.

I think the stretch he had until 2001 was fantastic. He had a great group of guys; a nice blend of homegrown talent and smart free agent acquisitions. After the 2001 season, Paul O'Neill and Scott Brosius both retired, two guys who had been instrumental pieces of the Yankees' run, who embodied tough work and hustle. At this point, Yankee owner George Steinbrenner decided to buy every free agent under the sun in hopes of bringing marquee stars to New York, increase revenue, and continue to win championships. Somewhere along the line, we'd realize that you can't, in fact, buy chemistry, something that the yesteryear Yankees had in droves.

So that brings us to 2007, a third straight year of an early ALDS exit, and a declining effort in each of those years. The 2005 defeat to the Angels went 5 games; 2006 versus the Tigers had the Yankees jump out 1-0 and led in game 2 before losing the series in 4 games; this most recent series against the Indians really had the Yankees asleep at the wheel for their 4 game loss.

So can the blame be placed on Torre? One side will say "he's given a $200 million payroll every year, who COULDN'T achieve some form of success with resources like theirs?" And that *is* accurate to an extent. A highly payroll guarantees nothing, especially when you consider that nearly $70 million was being paid to the combination of Mike Mussina, Kyle Farnsworth, Roger Clemens, Carl Pavano, and Jason Giambi; five players who didn't contribute all that many victories to the Yankees this year. But a payroll of that amount also means that the Yankees were capable of trotting out an All Star player at all 9 positions on Opening Day and the greatest closer of all time. It also means that when their pitching was hurting, they went out and threw $20 million at Roger Clemens to pull him out of retirement. These are things that most MLB teams simply can't do, and with that, their competitiveness is almost a sure thing year after year.

It's also important to note exactly how poor of an in-game manager Joe Torre actually is; all one would need to do is watch a few games. He never bunts, and rarely calls for stolen bases or hit-and-runs. His handling of the pitching staff is particularly atrocious; every year, he picks out a reliever or two and rides them into the ground, to the point where they're never effective again (see: Nelson, Jeff; Sturtze, Tanyon; and Quantrill, Paul). He pulls his starter too early or leaves him in too late. He's far too loyal to his veterans and will stick with slumping stars no matter what. Conversely, he's a great manager of egos (particularly important in a clubhouse full of multi-millionaires), and handles the vicious New York media with grace.

Chances are, Torre could manage this Yankee team to the playoffs for another five years in a row. Truth is, most any other manager in baseball could, as well. As it is, however, these teams haven't been built to win in the playoffs. Blame Steinbrenner, blame GM Brian Cashman; either way, Torre plays the hand he's been dealt. No matter how you slice it. three straight years of being bumped out in the first round doesn't help his cause.

I think had he gotten at *least* to the ALCS in any of these years, or even had his team COMPETE in the first round the past 2 years, it might not even be a discussion. But if the team isn't ready to play, that's on the manager, and it has to be pinned on Torre at this juncture.

I think it's been a great ride for Yankee fans, but I also think a little fresh blood couldn't hurt. Will Mariano Rivera really balk at returning if Torre is not offered a new contract? Jorge Posada? Will this influence Alex Rodriguez' decision? These are also things that may be considered by the Yanks' brass in the coming days and weeks. Ultimately, I can see one of two situations panning out: Torre is given yet another two year extension so he can open the new Yankee Stadium in 2009 with the team, or he's offered an upstairs job with the organization, with young blood in the form of Joe Girardi or Don Mattingly managing the team in 2008.

In closing. when discussing ANYTHING Yankee-related, it's important not to forget - 29 MLB teams' goal every year is to make the playoffs - the other team's goal is to win the World Series. What would happen if you didn't accomplish your goals at work?

Championship Series Playoff Predictions

OK, so I went 3 for 4 in the LDS round. Not too bad, but who really thought the D-Backs were going to take out the Cubs? In a SWEEP no less? But I digress...

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

It's hard not to love the Rockies right now. They fought their way into the playoffs, winning the one game against the Padres to make it in, then promptly disposed of the Philadelphia Phillies in three games. I am *still* not on the Diamondbacks bandwagon; they've been getting it done with smoke and mirrors all year long. After Brandon Webb, who's pitching these other games? Doug Davis? Livan Hernandez?

By the same token, the Rockies' starters not named Jeff Francis don't intimidate many hitters, either. However, the Rox' lineup is MUCH stronger, and I will take Colorado in 5.

American League

Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

Besides the pitching of Fausto Carmona, nothing about the Indians really impressed me during their defeat of the Yankees. They used horrible umpiring, bloop hits, and a swarm of Lake Erie midges to dispatch the Bronx Bombers. All their pitching had to do was throw reasonably well against the Yankees' poor starters to get by. The decision to not pitch CC Sabathia on short rest in the deciding game 4 of the ALDS proved to be a wise one, as they'll now have their co-aces ready to start games 1 & 2 at Fenway Park.

Boston has now had the chance to rest up and can line their pitching anyway they see fit. Curt Schilling will likely slide into the #2 spot behind Josh Beckett, as Daisuke Matsuzaka was less than memorable in his start against the Angels.

I think this will be a very interesting series. The Red Sox are a better team on paper, and it's really difficult to pick against them. Then again, in a seven game sseries, they'd be looking at four games total of Sabathia and Carmona; a tough challenge. I'll still take Boston in 7.