By request!
Random Thoughts & Musings on April
*Zack Greinke looks good. Real good. But you knew that. Will he win 25 games with a sub-1 ERA? I doubt it, but seeing as how he's already won 6, I think 20 is actually very attainable even if he were to pitch with a 3.50 ERA from here on out.
*The Angels have been ravaged by injuries (and untimely death) but are still hanging in there, just barely. John Lackey will be back soon, as should Kelvim Escobar and Vlad Guerrerro. Don't sleep on the Angels, their 'pen is bound to bounce back and in the mediocre AL West the division winner may not even crack 90 wins this year.
*Is David Ortiz this bad? I don't buy that he's missing Manny, since he still hit pretty well last year after Ramirez was traded. But you can tell by watching him he's lost a little bat speed. Unless he's playing the Yankees, I'm not scared of him anymore. But hey, the guy's almost 34, so it was bound to happen sooner or later.
*I know the Yankees have played the first month without A-Rod, their bullpen is decimated, and they got nothing from Chien-Ming Wang. All that's fine and good, but if CC Sabathia doesn't give them a chance to win in every start it won't matter. You pay a guy $161M because he's an ace and you have confidence that every time he takes the mound, he's going 7 innings and keeping you in the ballgame. By and large, he hasn't done that. Andy Pettitte has been good, Joba Chamberlain decent, and AJ Burnett up and down - but Sabathia is the guy that needs to get it going. He had a slow start last year too, but the Yankees really thought they were getting the guy who pitched on 3 days' rest for weeks down the stretch with Milwaukee last year. He hasn't shown up.
*As I said in my Predictions post before the season, the Mets' big trouble was going to be in the rotation. And it's true. Outside of Johan Santana, they haven't been good. $36 million man Oliver Perez is slated for mop-up duty, John Maine and Mike Pelfrey have been inconsistent at best, and Livan Hernandez is what he is. But alas - help is on the way in the form of Tim Redding!
*I truly wonder if some GM is going to get desperate and throw $5M (or at least a pro-rated $5M) at Pedro Martinez anytime soon. Problem is, I don't think he's going to be very successful unless he's pitching in a weak division and a big ballpark. And San Diego isn't exactly going to be a buyer this year. So, good luck, Petey.
*I have to admit to being surprised by a few things. I didn't think Justin Verlander would turn it around like he seems to have, and consequently the Tigers have looked pretty good despite getting nothing from Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen. I'm also shocked at the Blue Jays' start - Aaron Hill and Adam Lind have been playing out of their minds, but the lack of pitching will eventually catch up to them. They're the Orioles of a few years ago. Too much talent in Boston, Tampa, and New York to let Toronto sit in the division lead for much longer.
*Rough year for closers, eh? I admit, I thought Brian Fuentes would be doing a better job for LA, but that whole bullpen is a mess right now. The Nationals have 3 saves all year, the Rockies have changed closers on a weekly basis, and Kevin Gregg is somehow holding a job in Chicago. Papelbon, Rivera, and Soria are still pretty good, though.
*The Yankees' new ballpark is a joke. I've watched a fair share of games, and it's been a disgrace to see games against the Red Sox where there are clumps of empty seats behind home plate. If Boston can continue to renovate and play in Fenway Park, and Wrigley Field still looks beautiful, the Yankees could have spent a fraction of that $1.5B on cleaning up Yankee Stadium. I am making a trip up to the area this summer, and refuse to spend my money there. I'll instead be taking in a game at Citi Field (which promises to be better than the dump the Mets used to play in). I also plan to see games at Fenway Park and Tropicana Field this year. The Yankees can continue to cater to the rich, I'll watch the games on TV. What a joke.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
2009 MLB Predictions
AL East
1) NYY - 96-66 - First place is really a toss-up. When Joba Chamberlain is your #5, you've got a good pitching staff. If the Yankees can get even a fraction of 'normal' production out of Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada, who they got virtually nothing of last year, they should easily build on last year's 89 wins.
2) BOS 95-67 - Boston's decided advantage over the Yankees is in the bullpen. With Justin Masterson shifted back there full-time along with newcomer Takashi Saito, Boston could have the best bullpen in the majors this year. It's realistic to project a step back for Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, but Mike Lowell should be much improved. They still have a black hole at catcher with Jason Varitek. A full year of Jason Bay should be nice, especially if he turns it up since he's a free agent after the season. I would not be surprised to see any combination of New York and Boston at 1 and 2, only separated by a game or two.
3) TB - 92-70 - Tampa's going to be good this year. The bullpen can't possibly be as good as it was last year but that offense is still young and hungry. Joe Maddon is still a great manager. 92 wins just won't be enough to win this division. I'd look for them to be right back in the thick of it in 2010.
4) BAL 75-87 - I pick them to finish last every year but I think Baltimore is slowly creeping back to respectability. Restocking the farm system through the Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada trades was huge. Matt Wieters should evidently be hitting .600 already. Pitching is on the way in droves, with Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, etc. The young OF of Adam Jones, Felix Pie, and Nick Markakis looks great. And maybe Aubrey Huff has another nice year.
5) TOR 73-89 - Who's pitching after Roy Halladay? Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan are out, AJ Burnett is gone - BJ Ryan looks awful. Could be a long year. They can hope for a bounceback from Vernon Wells, an improvement from Alex Rios, and anything out of Scott Rolen. But this is probably going to be a bad Blue Jays team.
AL Central
1) CLE 91-71 - The AL Central is a tough one to pick, but I see a big bounceback from Cleveland this year. Grady Sizemore is fast improving, and they should get much more from Victor Martinez. Especially if he moves to 1B to allow Kelly Shoppach to catch. Travis Hafner is still an enigma, but the pitching should be solid. Though I have to laugh at any team that gives Carl Pavano a guaranteed roster spot, not to mention the #3 spot in their rotation.
2) MIN 89-73 - I could easily see Minnesota's pitching putting them over Cleveland, but their offense is just devoid of any power. Though that hasn't seem to bother them much the last few years. Joe Mauer will miss time, and after Justin Morneau it's generally a crapshoot. If Joe Crede can stay on the field, he'll jack 25 bombs. But that turf might be rough on his back for 81 games. The Twins have a bit of an outfield quandry, with Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Carlos Gomez being 4 guys for 3 spots. Former #1 pick Young is likely to be the odd man out.
3) KCR 82-80 - Here's my sleeper pick this year. The addition of Coco Crisp gives them a better than average outfield, defensively. Mike Jacobs is a low OBP guy but has great power. The Kyle Farnsworth signing is still a head-scratcher, but closer Joakim Soria is one of the best in the game. If guys like Mike Aviles, Alex Gordon, and David DeJesus can turn in nice seasons, their rotation should put them over .500 this year. A step in the right direction, for sure.
4) CHW 79-83 - I know, I know - every year the computers tell us the White Sox stink and they still manage to be in the hunt down to the last week of the season. I just don't see it this year. John Danks and Gavin Floyd were great last year and a regression should follow. The back end of their rotation is Bartolo Colon and Jose Contreras. Paul Konerko is getting old, Alexei Ramirez should be disastrous defensively at short, and their in-house candidates for the starting CF job are laughable. But what the hell do I know, they'll probably win 91 games.
5) DET 77-85 - This team is probably going to be a mess again. Their starting pitching is pretty thin, unless Justin Verlander can turn it around. He's never been the same since throwing a ton of innings his rookie year. The closer candidates are poor (Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney) and they've just moved a guy with a history of leg problems.. into the outfield (Carlos Guillen). I just don't see much from Detroit this year at all.
AL West
1) LAA 92-70 - Mike Scoscia always finds a way to have these guys in the hunt. They have a glutton of outfielders, but a starting group of Vlad Guerrero, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreu will be very productive. One of these years Howie Kendrick is going to be bust out and be the hitter he should be, if only he'll stay healthy for 150+ games. Their starting pitching is a bit thin to start the year, missing John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Kelvim Escobar until at least May each. But the back end of the bullpen is still good (Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo, new closer Brian Fuentes) and I personally have faith in Scoscia to guide them back to the playoffs again. Just hope it's not against Boston.
2) OAK 90-72 - They invested a ton in offense this year, trading for or signing Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, and Nomar Garciaparra to form a newly-revamped heart of the Oakland order. The pitching is the question though. The bullpen should be good, but it can't protect a lead if a starting pitcher can't give them one. Lots of question marks in the rotation. But Billy Beane is nothing if not a great evaluator of pitching, so I see the A's winning a bunch of games this year. And if not, he'll dump off some of the aforementioned acquisitions at mid-year to revamp the farm system. After all, they're all only signed for this year.
3) SEA 81-81 - Seattle had a lot go wrong last year, but overhauling the front office was a step in the right direction. They got a lot back for former closer JJ Putz. This should be a good defensive team, with Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ichiro in the outfield. If Adrian Beltre pulls a 2004-like contract year again, and they get anything out of the catcher position, they could surprise a few people. Given the dearth of their starting pitching, I was surprised that they'd move Brandon Morrow to the 'pen. At any rate, I wouldn't expect to make any serious noise for another 2 years, at least.
4) TEX 77-85 - The Rangers can always hit, but never pitch. I guess their bullpen looks all right, but the rotation stinks, as usual. The offense should win them a few games, with Josh Hamilton leading the way. Otherwise, I just don't see much to be excited about in Arlington.
NL East
1) PHI 93-69 - This is basically the same team as last year, with the addition of Raul Ibanez in place of Pat Burrell. This should leave them succeptible to a shutdown lefty - otherwise, they won the World Series, and I can't pick against them to finish anywhere but the top of their division this year. The rotation looks good, so long as Cole Hamels is healthy and ready to go. The back end of the bullpen is great.
2) NYM 90-72 - The Mets are a much-improved team - their new 8th inning guy (JJ Putz) is actually better than their new closer, Francisco Rodriguez. Tough to expect Carlos Delgado to go on a tear again like he did last year after Willie Randolph was fired, and Luis Castillo is still a terrible signing that gets worse every year. There's not a lot of power in the corner outfield spots with Daniel Murphy and Ryan Church, and they probably won't get much out of Brian Schneider behind the plate, either. The real big problem with this team, though, is in the rotation. After Johan Santana, it's just question mark after question mark. Is Mike Pelfrey ready to take a big step forward? Which Oliver Perez will show up every start? Can John Maine continue to improve? Are they honestly going to use Livan Hernandez, of the 6+ ERA, as their fifth starter?
3) ATL 87-75 - They're retooled their rotation and added stability to that part of the team. Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez will give them 200+ innings apiece. If Jair Jurrjens can pitch to last year's levels and Kenshin Kawakami is serviceable, the Braves may have enough offense to compete for the wild card.
4) FLA 80-82 - The Marlins are inching toward a big run that they seem to pull off every 5 years or so. With the news that they're building a new stadium, this may encourage ownership to actually take on payroll rather than shed it. Hanley Ramirez is a star, and Cameron Maybin may be too. I could see the rotation being fantastic or awful; everybody's got question marks.
5) WAS 71-91 - This team continually puzzles me. I guess getting rid of Jim Bowden will improve things long-term. But the contract extensions they've doled out in the past few years have hamstrung the team financially. And now they sign Adam Dunn for $20M when he won't be a part of the next winning Nationals team anyway. When you're consistently finishing in or near the basement, it's better to just spend on the draft. That Strasburg guy is gonna want a lot of money, I hear.
NL Central
1) CHC 96-66 - Sweet Lou should be able to go into auto-pilot for six months and win this division. The cast of characters is basically unchanged from last year, except for the loss of Mark DeRosa and addition of tin man Milton Bradley. Kevin Gregg will close in place of Kerry Wood. Piniella will figure it all out.
2) STL 89-73 - Another team that looks a lot like it did last year, but probably won't be good enough to play in October. Any team will Albert Pujols is going to compete; they're still lacking a real threat to hit behind him. Troy Glaus was largely a bust last year. Maybe a contract year boon for Rick Ankiel will do the trick.
3) CIN 85-77 - I see Cincinnati as a surprise team to finish above .500 this year. I really like the rotation, and they'll see improvement from Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. I could see new catcher Ramon Hernandez hitting like he did in his NL days for them. It'd help to have some stability at the shortstop position, as Alex Gonzalez is still struggling to stay healthy.
4) MIL 81-81 - They are really going to feel the hurt of losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets this year. Yovani Gallardo is going to be great, and Manny Parra is improving - but their other rotation options are pretty unappealing. Still, a heart of the order feating Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder should be good enough to muscle them near .500 when all is said and done.
5) HOU 78-84 - Just a lousy team. The pitching is thin after Roy Oswalt, the offense is thin after Lance Berkman. Pudge Rodriguez isn't a difference maker. And when your starting 3B is Geoff Blum, you're probably not going to compete.
6) PIT 72-90 - I just don't see any hope for the Pirates. They extend the lousy guys (Nate McLouth, Paul Maholm) and trade the good ones (Jason Bay, Xavier Nady). Ryan Doumit's a nice hitter behind the plate, but Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutcheon just aren't ready yet. This will be a bad team, per usual.
NL West
1) LAD 93-69 - Manny changed the look of this division, big time. Before he signed a few weeks ago, I would have pegged the Dodgers to finish third, just because of their poor rotation. But he's such a difference maker offensively that the whole team looks better with him in the lineup. I don't know if they'll be able to get it done in the playoffs, but at least they'll get a chance to get there, so long as Manny's on his best behavior.
2) SF 88-74 - The Giants improved their rotation big-time with the signing of Randy Johnson to be their #3. Tim Lincecum is great, and Matt Cain isn't much worse. The problem has been the assorted contributions they've received from different offensive players for the past few years. That is, to say, that nobody has really stepped up. Bengin Molina led the team in RBIs and got more at-bats in the cleanup spot than anybody else in that lineup. The starting outfield hit a combined 32 home runs last year. If somebody else can mash, and Edgar Renteria remembers how to hit in the NL, the Giants could make a run.
3) ARI 86-76 - I could see Arizona pushing for the wild card or falling completely out of contention by early August. There's a lot of upside in the offense here, with Chris Young and Justin Upton in the outfield. Stephen Drew continues to improve, and the rotation anchored by Brandon Webb will be good. But this team just doesn't really excite me. Maybe they'll try to acquire a big name at the deadline like they did with Adam Dunn last year.
4) COL 83-79 - That World Series appearance seems like it was 10 years ago, doesn't it? The Todd Helton continues to be an albatross to the franchise, as he's become a low-power, high OBP guy - great for a middle infielder, not great for a 1B. Troy Tulowitzki should be great if healthy, Garrett Atkins will be solid in his walk year, and the outfield will look a lot different without Willy Taveras, and, more importantly, Matt Holliday. The rotation is a mess.
5) SD 70-92 - Just a brutal team. Brutal. Jake Peavy was almost traded which could have made this team worse than the '62 Mets. They have one bright spot on offense, Adrian Gonzalez, and the pitching is totally thin all over after Peavy. Going to be a tough team to watch.
1) NYY - 96-66 - First place is really a toss-up. When Joba Chamberlain is your #5, you've got a good pitching staff. If the Yankees can get even a fraction of 'normal' production out of Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada, who they got virtually nothing of last year, they should easily build on last year's 89 wins.
2) BOS 95-67 - Boston's decided advantage over the Yankees is in the bullpen. With Justin Masterson shifted back there full-time along with newcomer Takashi Saito, Boston could have the best bullpen in the majors this year. It's realistic to project a step back for Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, but Mike Lowell should be much improved. They still have a black hole at catcher with Jason Varitek. A full year of Jason Bay should be nice, especially if he turns it up since he's a free agent after the season. I would not be surprised to see any combination of New York and Boston at 1 and 2, only separated by a game or two.
3) TB - 92-70 - Tampa's going to be good this year. The bullpen can't possibly be as good as it was last year but that offense is still young and hungry. Joe Maddon is still a great manager. 92 wins just won't be enough to win this division. I'd look for them to be right back in the thick of it in 2010.
4) BAL 75-87 - I pick them to finish last every year but I think Baltimore is slowly creeping back to respectability. Restocking the farm system through the Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada trades was huge. Matt Wieters should evidently be hitting .600 already. Pitching is on the way in droves, with Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, etc. The young OF of Adam Jones, Felix Pie, and Nick Markakis looks great. And maybe Aubrey Huff has another nice year.
5) TOR 73-89 - Who's pitching after Roy Halladay? Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan are out, AJ Burnett is gone - BJ Ryan looks awful. Could be a long year. They can hope for a bounceback from Vernon Wells, an improvement from Alex Rios, and anything out of Scott Rolen. But this is probably going to be a bad Blue Jays team.
AL Central
1) CLE 91-71 - The AL Central is a tough one to pick, but I see a big bounceback from Cleveland this year. Grady Sizemore is fast improving, and they should get much more from Victor Martinez. Especially if he moves to 1B to allow Kelly Shoppach to catch. Travis Hafner is still an enigma, but the pitching should be solid. Though I have to laugh at any team that gives Carl Pavano a guaranteed roster spot, not to mention the #3 spot in their rotation.
2) MIN 89-73 - I could easily see Minnesota's pitching putting them over Cleveland, but their offense is just devoid of any power. Though that hasn't seem to bother them much the last few years. Joe Mauer will miss time, and after Justin Morneau it's generally a crapshoot. If Joe Crede can stay on the field, he'll jack 25 bombs. But that turf might be rough on his back for 81 games. The Twins have a bit of an outfield quandry, with Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Carlos Gomez being 4 guys for 3 spots. Former #1 pick Young is likely to be the odd man out.
3) KCR 82-80 - Here's my sleeper pick this year. The addition of Coco Crisp gives them a better than average outfield, defensively. Mike Jacobs is a low OBP guy but has great power. The Kyle Farnsworth signing is still a head-scratcher, but closer Joakim Soria is one of the best in the game. If guys like Mike Aviles, Alex Gordon, and David DeJesus can turn in nice seasons, their rotation should put them over .500 this year. A step in the right direction, for sure.
4) CHW 79-83 - I know, I know - every year the computers tell us the White Sox stink and they still manage to be in the hunt down to the last week of the season. I just don't see it this year. John Danks and Gavin Floyd were great last year and a regression should follow. The back end of their rotation is Bartolo Colon and Jose Contreras. Paul Konerko is getting old, Alexei Ramirez should be disastrous defensively at short, and their in-house candidates for the starting CF job are laughable. But what the hell do I know, they'll probably win 91 games.
5) DET 77-85 - This team is probably going to be a mess again. Their starting pitching is pretty thin, unless Justin Verlander can turn it around. He's never been the same since throwing a ton of innings his rookie year. The closer candidates are poor (Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney) and they've just moved a guy with a history of leg problems.. into the outfield (Carlos Guillen). I just don't see much from Detroit this year at all.
AL West
1) LAA 92-70 - Mike Scoscia always finds a way to have these guys in the hunt. They have a glutton of outfielders, but a starting group of Vlad Guerrero, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreu will be very productive. One of these years Howie Kendrick is going to be bust out and be the hitter he should be, if only he'll stay healthy for 150+ games. Their starting pitching is a bit thin to start the year, missing John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Kelvim Escobar until at least May each. But the back end of the bullpen is still good (Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo, new closer Brian Fuentes) and I personally have faith in Scoscia to guide them back to the playoffs again. Just hope it's not against Boston.
2) OAK 90-72 - They invested a ton in offense this year, trading for or signing Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, and Nomar Garciaparra to form a newly-revamped heart of the Oakland order. The pitching is the question though. The bullpen should be good, but it can't protect a lead if a starting pitcher can't give them one. Lots of question marks in the rotation. But Billy Beane is nothing if not a great evaluator of pitching, so I see the A's winning a bunch of games this year. And if not, he'll dump off some of the aforementioned acquisitions at mid-year to revamp the farm system. After all, they're all only signed for this year.
3) SEA 81-81 - Seattle had a lot go wrong last year, but overhauling the front office was a step in the right direction. They got a lot back for former closer JJ Putz. This should be a good defensive team, with Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ichiro in the outfield. If Adrian Beltre pulls a 2004-like contract year again, and they get anything out of the catcher position, they could surprise a few people. Given the dearth of their starting pitching, I was surprised that they'd move Brandon Morrow to the 'pen. At any rate, I wouldn't expect to make any serious noise for another 2 years, at least.
4) TEX 77-85 - The Rangers can always hit, but never pitch. I guess their bullpen looks all right, but the rotation stinks, as usual. The offense should win them a few games, with Josh Hamilton leading the way. Otherwise, I just don't see much to be excited about in Arlington.
NL East
1) PHI 93-69 - This is basically the same team as last year, with the addition of Raul Ibanez in place of Pat Burrell. This should leave them succeptible to a shutdown lefty - otherwise, they won the World Series, and I can't pick against them to finish anywhere but the top of their division this year. The rotation looks good, so long as Cole Hamels is healthy and ready to go. The back end of the bullpen is great.
2) NYM 90-72 - The Mets are a much-improved team - their new 8th inning guy (JJ Putz) is actually better than their new closer, Francisco Rodriguez. Tough to expect Carlos Delgado to go on a tear again like he did last year after Willie Randolph was fired, and Luis Castillo is still a terrible signing that gets worse every year. There's not a lot of power in the corner outfield spots with Daniel Murphy and Ryan Church, and they probably won't get much out of Brian Schneider behind the plate, either. The real big problem with this team, though, is in the rotation. After Johan Santana, it's just question mark after question mark. Is Mike Pelfrey ready to take a big step forward? Which Oliver Perez will show up every start? Can John Maine continue to improve? Are they honestly going to use Livan Hernandez, of the 6+ ERA, as their fifth starter?
3) ATL 87-75 - They're retooled their rotation and added stability to that part of the team. Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez will give them 200+ innings apiece. If Jair Jurrjens can pitch to last year's levels and Kenshin Kawakami is serviceable, the Braves may have enough offense to compete for the wild card.
4) FLA 80-82 - The Marlins are inching toward a big run that they seem to pull off every 5 years or so. With the news that they're building a new stadium, this may encourage ownership to actually take on payroll rather than shed it. Hanley Ramirez is a star, and Cameron Maybin may be too. I could see the rotation being fantastic or awful; everybody's got question marks.
5) WAS 71-91 - This team continually puzzles me. I guess getting rid of Jim Bowden will improve things long-term. But the contract extensions they've doled out in the past few years have hamstrung the team financially. And now they sign Adam Dunn for $20M when he won't be a part of the next winning Nationals team anyway. When you're consistently finishing in or near the basement, it's better to just spend on the draft. That Strasburg guy is gonna want a lot of money, I hear.
NL Central
1) CHC 96-66 - Sweet Lou should be able to go into auto-pilot for six months and win this division. The cast of characters is basically unchanged from last year, except for the loss of Mark DeRosa and addition of tin man Milton Bradley. Kevin Gregg will close in place of Kerry Wood. Piniella will figure it all out.
2) STL 89-73 - Another team that looks a lot like it did last year, but probably won't be good enough to play in October. Any team will Albert Pujols is going to compete; they're still lacking a real threat to hit behind him. Troy Glaus was largely a bust last year. Maybe a contract year boon for Rick Ankiel will do the trick.
3) CIN 85-77 - I see Cincinnati as a surprise team to finish above .500 this year. I really like the rotation, and they'll see improvement from Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. I could see new catcher Ramon Hernandez hitting like he did in his NL days for them. It'd help to have some stability at the shortstop position, as Alex Gonzalez is still struggling to stay healthy.
4) MIL 81-81 - They are really going to feel the hurt of losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets this year. Yovani Gallardo is going to be great, and Manny Parra is improving - but their other rotation options are pretty unappealing. Still, a heart of the order feating Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder should be good enough to muscle them near .500 when all is said and done.
5) HOU 78-84 - Just a lousy team. The pitching is thin after Roy Oswalt, the offense is thin after Lance Berkman. Pudge Rodriguez isn't a difference maker. And when your starting 3B is Geoff Blum, you're probably not going to compete.
6) PIT 72-90 - I just don't see any hope for the Pirates. They extend the lousy guys (Nate McLouth, Paul Maholm) and trade the good ones (Jason Bay, Xavier Nady). Ryan Doumit's a nice hitter behind the plate, but Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutcheon just aren't ready yet. This will be a bad team, per usual.
NL West
1) LAD 93-69 - Manny changed the look of this division, big time. Before he signed a few weeks ago, I would have pegged the Dodgers to finish third, just because of their poor rotation. But he's such a difference maker offensively that the whole team looks better with him in the lineup. I don't know if they'll be able to get it done in the playoffs, but at least they'll get a chance to get there, so long as Manny's on his best behavior.
2) SF 88-74 - The Giants improved their rotation big-time with the signing of Randy Johnson to be their #3. Tim Lincecum is great, and Matt Cain isn't much worse. The problem has been the assorted contributions they've received from different offensive players for the past few years. That is, to say, that nobody has really stepped up. Bengin Molina led the team in RBIs and got more at-bats in the cleanup spot than anybody else in that lineup. The starting outfield hit a combined 32 home runs last year. If somebody else can mash, and Edgar Renteria remembers how to hit in the NL, the Giants could make a run.
3) ARI 86-76 - I could see Arizona pushing for the wild card or falling completely out of contention by early August. There's a lot of upside in the offense here, with Chris Young and Justin Upton in the outfield. Stephen Drew continues to improve, and the rotation anchored by Brandon Webb will be good. But this team just doesn't really excite me. Maybe they'll try to acquire a big name at the deadline like they did with Adam Dunn last year.
4) COL 83-79 - That World Series appearance seems like it was 10 years ago, doesn't it? The Todd Helton continues to be an albatross to the franchise, as he's become a low-power, high OBP guy - great for a middle infielder, not great for a 1B. Troy Tulowitzki should be great if healthy, Garrett Atkins will be solid in his walk year, and the outfield will look a lot different without Willy Taveras, and, more importantly, Matt Holliday. The rotation is a mess.
5) SD 70-92 - Just a brutal team. Brutal. Jake Peavy was almost traded which could have made this team worse than the '62 Mets. They have one bright spot on offense, Adrian Gonzalez, and the pitching is totally thin all over after Peavy. Going to be a tough team to watch.
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