Much like 2B, I try to go for average and OBP with runs and steals from the middle infield positions - and it seem's like this year's SS class is pretty deep.
1) Jose Reyes (NYM) - It's tough to choose between Reyes and Ramirez - you really can't go wrong with either. I give the nod to Reyes because he's got a better lineup behind him, and will steal a ton more bases than his counterpart. I have to think that the .280 batting average in 2007 was a fluke, too.
2) Hanley Ramirez (FLA) - Ramirez should see a spike in power numbers, as he'll hit primarily in the middle of the order for the Marlins this year. But the steals will take a major dip. He's also going to be missing Miguel Cabrera batting behind him, which is one less guy to knock him in. He'll go high in drafts this year, possibly even second - but I wouldn't go that high on him.
3) Jimmy Rollins (PHI) - Looking at the numbers between Rollins, Reyes, and Ramirez, I think this NL East SS competition should be closer than it's perceived. Rollins had the most runs, HR, and RBI of the three, and had a comparable OBP to Reyes, and fell right in the middle as far as batting average goes. I think he could repeat 2007's performance.
4) Carlos Guillen (DET) - I love Guillen this year - no wear and tear from playing SS, but he'll keep the eligibility. I've stated it several times, but there's going to be so many run-scoring opportunities in the Tigers lineup, and Guillen's going to be a big part of it. He'll top 100 RBI easily.
5) Derek Jeter (NYY) - Ol' Mr. Reliable. You know what you're getting with Jeter - a .320 batting average, triple digit runs, and close to a .400 OBP. Not much else though, really. He's drafted so highly because he's much more valuable on the field than his numbers show - however, that's yet to be a real benefit in fantasy baseball. He seems to string together more three hit games than anybody else I can think of though - and rarely slumps at the plate.
6) Troy Tulowitzki (COL) - Tulowitzki seemed to come out of nowhere after the All Star Break for the NL Champion Rockies. Is he for real? The Rox' lineup is deep, and he'll score a bunch of runs and knock 20+ HR.
7) Edgar Renteria (DET) - The second Detroit SS-eligible player in the top 10. Renteria bounced back nicely in 2007 to the tune of a .332 / .390 line for the Braves. I'm not sure where he'll hit for the Tigers - he's a typical #2 hitter, but that's Placido Polanco's spot - so I could see possibly batting 7th or 8th. He's still likely to be quite productive, even that low in the order.
8) Miguel Tejada (HOU) - Tejada's batting average came crashing way down last year, below the .300 line for the first time since 2003. His OBP was still at his career average, so the batting average may have been just bad luck on balls in play. RBIs and HR were down as well though, so unless he's prematurely entering the back end of his career, you've got to give him a mulligan and hope he's rejuvenated in Houston - still a losing situation, albeit a better one.
9) Rafael Furcal (LAD) - Furcal had an awful start in 2007, but was dealing with injuries. He only swiped 25 bases, and none of his other numbers were spectacular in the least. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he returns to pre-2007 status now that he's healthy.
10) Michael Young (TEX) - It's apparent that the days of 20 HR from Young are gone, but he can still get on base (.366 last year) and should knock in some runs hitting third in the Texas lineup.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Monday, February 18, 2008
Fantasy Preview by Position: Third Base
Third base, along with first, is a major power position, unquestionably.
1) Alex Rodriguez (NYY) - Doesn't really require much discussion. Probably not going to match last year's numbers, but you know what you're getting - a boatload of RBIs, runs scored, homers, OBP, a nice handful of stolen bases, and probably a .300+ batting average. Undisputed #1 draft pick in fantasy baseball.
2) Miguel Cabrera (DET) - Should see RBI opportunities increase in the loaded Tigers lineup. Will hit somewhere in the mid-.300s and probably bang in close to 130 RBIs if they bat him in the middle of the order.
3) David Wright (NYM) - Wright started a bit slow last year but still wound up with great numbers - he went 30/30, hit .325, and got on base exactly 41.6% of the time. He steals a fair share of bases, knocks in a bunch of runs, and hits home runs. He is one of the guys who I think any year is going to absolutely blow up - and he isn't even in his prime yet. Can't go wrong here.
4) Ryan Braun (MIL) - The amazing part of Ryan Braun's rookie campaign last year is the fact that he didn't even join the big club until May. As such, he jacked 34 HR and fell just shy of 100 RBI. The position switch lessenes his anxiety about a league high in errors at the hot corner last year - but he keeps that 3B eligibility for 2008. Go get him.
5) Aramis Ramirez (CHC) - The RBI opportunities will be there in the deep Cubs lineup. Owners will hope he's more 2006 (38 HR, 119 RBI) than 2007 (26, 101).
6) Chipper Jones (ATL) - Ol' faithful. When healthy, Larry can still rake, and he did in 2007 - to the tune of a .337 average and .425 OBP. He will benefit from a year of Mark Teixeira around him in the Braves' lineup. Just gotta hope he can stay on the field.
7) Garrett Atkins (COL) - Atkins battled a VERY slow start and still managed to hit over .300 last year; I'd temper expectations, but he has great power and does play half of his games at Coors Field.
8) Troy Glaus (STL) - My sleeper candidate. Glaus is coming off foot surgery; however his problems were largely from playing on the turf in Toronto. He'll kill the mediocre pitching in the NL Central if he's healthy; and he'll feel better on natural grass. I wouldn't be surprised if he approaches 45 bombs this year.
9) Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) - Zimmerman is still developing but the power is there - he could approach 30 HR. He needs to improve his plate discipline. If there was anybody else worth pitching to in the Washington lineup, he might fare even better.
10) Mike Lowell (BOS) - Let's face it - Lowell isn't going to hit .324 again, nor is he going to knock in 120 runs, but he'll have runs on the table hitting behind Manny and Ortiz.
Worth a Look: Evan Longoria (TBR)
1) Alex Rodriguez (NYY) - Doesn't really require much discussion. Probably not going to match last year's numbers, but you know what you're getting - a boatload of RBIs, runs scored, homers, OBP, a nice handful of stolen bases, and probably a .300+ batting average. Undisputed #1 draft pick in fantasy baseball.
2) Miguel Cabrera (DET) - Should see RBI opportunities increase in the loaded Tigers lineup. Will hit somewhere in the mid-.300s and probably bang in close to 130 RBIs if they bat him in the middle of the order.
3) David Wright (NYM) - Wright started a bit slow last year but still wound up with great numbers - he went 30/30, hit .325, and got on base exactly 41.6% of the time. He steals a fair share of bases, knocks in a bunch of runs, and hits home runs. He is one of the guys who I think any year is going to absolutely blow up - and he isn't even in his prime yet. Can't go wrong here.
4) Ryan Braun (MIL) - The amazing part of Ryan Braun's rookie campaign last year is the fact that he didn't even join the big club until May. As such, he jacked 34 HR and fell just shy of 100 RBI. The position switch lessenes his anxiety about a league high in errors at the hot corner last year - but he keeps that 3B eligibility for 2008. Go get him.
5) Aramis Ramirez (CHC) - The RBI opportunities will be there in the deep Cubs lineup. Owners will hope he's more 2006 (38 HR, 119 RBI) than 2007 (26, 101).
6) Chipper Jones (ATL) - Ol' faithful. When healthy, Larry can still rake, and he did in 2007 - to the tune of a .337 average and .425 OBP. He will benefit from a year of Mark Teixeira around him in the Braves' lineup. Just gotta hope he can stay on the field.
7) Garrett Atkins (COL) - Atkins battled a VERY slow start and still managed to hit over .300 last year; I'd temper expectations, but he has great power and does play half of his games at Coors Field.
8) Troy Glaus (STL) - My sleeper candidate. Glaus is coming off foot surgery; however his problems were largely from playing on the turf in Toronto. He'll kill the mediocre pitching in the NL Central if he's healthy; and he'll feel better on natural grass. I wouldn't be surprised if he approaches 45 bombs this year.
9) Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) - Zimmerman is still developing but the power is there - he could approach 30 HR. He needs to improve his plate discipline. If there was anybody else worth pitching to in the Washington lineup, he might fare even better.
10) Mike Lowell (BOS) - Let's face it - Lowell isn't going to hit .324 again, nor is he going to knock in 120 runs, but he'll have runs on the table hitting behind Manny and Ortiz.
Worth a Look: Evan Longoria (TBR)
Fantasy Preview by Position: Second Base
At second, I try to go for a guy that'll bolster average/OBP, score some runs, and steal some bases - I don't need the guy to hit 20 HR. In this category, the top few guys are really head and shoulders over the rest.
1) Chase Utley (PHI) - How many second basemen hit in the middle of their team's order? Not many. You can count on an OBP over .400 and a batting average in the .320s, with a slew of runs scored and solid power numbers (exceptional for his position).
2) Robinson Cano (NYY) - 2007 line: 93 runs scored and 97 RBIs getting the majority of his at-bats in the 7 hole! Batting 7th! Yikes. Imagine if he was hitting third in that Yankee lineup? I rank him high because the power is still developing, you never know when he'll explode, and maybe new manager Joe Girardi will hit him lower in the order this season.
3) Brandon Phillips (CIN) - One of only three players to go 30-30 last season; the other two were Jimmy Rollins and David Wright (pretty good company, eh?) He was a pleasant surprise for those who thought enough to draft him. This year he won't be a surprise. He's got good power and is enterting his prime years. Could blow up.
4) BJ Upton (TBR) - Ah, second base eligibility despite the fact he'll be Tampa's center fielder. Nice. Upton was always regarded for blazing speed and poor pitch recognition, yet he only stole 22 bags and hit .300 last year - figure that one out. Personally, I'd take either incarnation. He should lead off, therefore score a ton of runs and swipe 25+ bases down in the Sunshine State. I'd venture to guess that average will look a lot more about .275, though.
5) Brian Roberts (BAL) - He might get bumped up if he's traded to the Cubs, but Roberts gets on base, scores runs, and can flat out fly (50 SB in '07). He scored 103 runs in the albatross lineup in Baltimore last year; if he's wearing Chicago blue on Opening Day, 120 is more likely.
6) Chone Figgins (LAA) - His batting average really surprised me last year, hitting .330 after returning from his hand injury. His speed is for real though, and if he can work his way back to the top of the LA lineup, he'll have plenty of opportunities score runs, especially if his OBP is near .400 as it was last year (though it won't be).
7) Placido Polanco (DET) - Great average / on-base guy (.341 / .388) who's going to rounding third base an awful lot in that lineup. He also knocked in 67 runs and could do even more with arguably the deepest lineup in baseball around him.
8) Ian Kinsler (TEX) - Nice blend of power and speed (20 HR, 23 SB in '07). His batting average kills me (.263), but could improve, as he's still young.
9) Howie Kendrick (LAA) - If he can find a way to stay healthy, he'll be a star. Hits for a very high average but doesn't walk much.
10) Rickie Weeks (MIL) - Speaking of an inability to stay healthy... if Weeks can improve his pitch recognition and play 150 games, he'll push 30-30, easily.
Worth a Look: Jeff Kent (LAD), Yunel Escobar (ATL)
1) Chase Utley (PHI) - How many second basemen hit in the middle of their team's order? Not many. You can count on an OBP over .400 and a batting average in the .320s, with a slew of runs scored and solid power numbers (exceptional for his position).
2) Robinson Cano (NYY) - 2007 line: 93 runs scored and 97 RBIs getting the majority of his at-bats in the 7 hole! Batting 7th! Yikes. Imagine if he was hitting third in that Yankee lineup? I rank him high because the power is still developing, you never know when he'll explode, and maybe new manager Joe Girardi will hit him lower in the order this season.
3) Brandon Phillips (CIN) - One of only three players to go 30-30 last season; the other two were Jimmy Rollins and David Wright (pretty good company, eh?) He was a pleasant surprise for those who thought enough to draft him. This year he won't be a surprise. He's got good power and is enterting his prime years. Could blow up.
4) BJ Upton (TBR) - Ah, second base eligibility despite the fact he'll be Tampa's center fielder. Nice. Upton was always regarded for blazing speed and poor pitch recognition, yet he only stole 22 bags and hit .300 last year - figure that one out. Personally, I'd take either incarnation. He should lead off, therefore score a ton of runs and swipe 25+ bases down in the Sunshine State. I'd venture to guess that average will look a lot more about .275, though.
5) Brian Roberts (BAL) - He might get bumped up if he's traded to the Cubs, but Roberts gets on base, scores runs, and can flat out fly (50 SB in '07). He scored 103 runs in the albatross lineup in Baltimore last year; if he's wearing Chicago blue on Opening Day, 120 is more likely.
6) Chone Figgins (LAA) - His batting average really surprised me last year, hitting .330 after returning from his hand injury. His speed is for real though, and if he can work his way back to the top of the LA lineup, he'll have plenty of opportunities score runs, especially if his OBP is near .400 as it was last year (though it won't be).
7) Placido Polanco (DET) - Great average / on-base guy (.341 / .388) who's going to rounding third base an awful lot in that lineup. He also knocked in 67 runs and could do even more with arguably the deepest lineup in baseball around him.
8) Ian Kinsler (TEX) - Nice blend of power and speed (20 HR, 23 SB in '07). His batting average kills me (.263), but could improve, as he's still young.
9) Howie Kendrick (LAA) - If he can find a way to stay healthy, he'll be a star. Hits for a very high average but doesn't walk much.
10) Rickie Weeks (MIL) - Speaking of an inability to stay healthy... if Weeks can improve his pitch recognition and play 150 games, he'll push 30-30, easily.
Worth a Look: Jeff Kent (LAD), Yunel Escobar (ATL)
Friday, February 15, 2008
Fantasy Preview by Position: First Base
At first base, I usually just go for pure power with little else - you can fill out the peripherals at the middle infield positions and catcher.
1) Albert Pujols (STL) - Think about this for a second - even in a "down" year, the guy hit .327 / .429 with more than 30 HR and 100 RBIs. And he was hurt for part of the year. Rumors are he's battling injuries now, but with Albert, it's tough to argue in favor of anybody else.
2) Prince Fielder (MIL) - I got lucky and snagged Prince in the 8th round last year - BIG payoff there. He went on to slug 50 HR with 119 RBI. A full year of Ryan Braun behind him will force pitchers to pitch to him (see Ortiz, David) and he'll continue to mash.
3) Ryan Howard (PHI) - Howard is another guy that started off slow but somehow wound up nearing 50 HR and 140 RBI. The average was significantly down from 2006, but for power numbers and OBP, it's tough to argue. Especially with Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino always on base in front of him - Howard's going to knock in a boatload of runs.
4) David Ortiz (BOS) - Ortiz seemed to sacrifice home run totals (35) for a higher batting average (.332) last season. Not exactly what fantasy owners signed up for, but still nice production. I had him as the #2 first baseman last year, hence the dropoff. If Manny Ramirez's slide is for real, he may not see as many pitches in 2008, either.
5) Travis Hafner (CLE) - BOUNCEBACK CANDIDATE! That wrist is all healed up. His batting eye was still good last year, as evidenced by the .385 OBP. Look for more of a 2006 Hafner than 2007. I wouldn't call him a sleeper, but if he falls late into the second round, jump all over it. The 1B eligibility is nice, too.
6) Mark Teixeira (ATL) - Big Tex seemed a bit lost during the first half of the year in Arlington last year, but once he was traded to Atlanta, he mashed, with 56 RBI in 54 games. Look for strong run production this year.
7) Derrek Lee (CHC) - Even if the 46 HR of 2005 were a fluke, so long as Lee stays healthy he's going to have the opportunity to drive in a ton of runs this year; especially if the Cubs manage to acquire Brian Roberts from Baltimore.
8) Carlos Guillen (DET) - How good is this guy? He's got SS eligibility but his numbers play pretty well as a 1B, too. Should easily knock in over 100 runs and swipe a few bags. Less wear and tear on his body from the position switch will keep him fresher as the year goes on, too.
9) Carlos Pena (TBR) - OK, he's probably not going to 46 HR again this year. But he does have real power and with BJ Upton and Carl Crawford on base in front of him, he's going to have plenty of RBI opportunities. The .282 batting average likely isn't going to happen again, either. I'd pencil him in for about 35 HR and 120 RBI.
10) Lance Berkman (HOU) - Berkman's numbers were down last year, and that Houston lineup is just going to be terrible. He may get some protection from newly-acquired Miguel Tejada, depending on how their lineup shakes out, though.
Worth a Look: James Loney (LAD)
1) Albert Pujols (STL) - Think about this for a second - even in a "down" year, the guy hit .327 / .429 with more than 30 HR and 100 RBIs. And he was hurt for part of the year. Rumors are he's battling injuries now, but with Albert, it's tough to argue in favor of anybody else.
2) Prince Fielder (MIL) - I got lucky and snagged Prince in the 8th round last year - BIG payoff there. He went on to slug 50 HR with 119 RBI. A full year of Ryan Braun behind him will force pitchers to pitch to him (see Ortiz, David) and he'll continue to mash.
3) Ryan Howard (PHI) - Howard is another guy that started off slow but somehow wound up nearing 50 HR and 140 RBI. The average was significantly down from 2006, but for power numbers and OBP, it's tough to argue. Especially with Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino always on base in front of him - Howard's going to knock in a boatload of runs.
4) David Ortiz (BOS) - Ortiz seemed to sacrifice home run totals (35) for a higher batting average (.332) last season. Not exactly what fantasy owners signed up for, but still nice production. I had him as the #2 first baseman last year, hence the dropoff. If Manny Ramirez's slide is for real, he may not see as many pitches in 2008, either.
5) Travis Hafner (CLE) - BOUNCEBACK CANDIDATE! That wrist is all healed up. His batting eye was still good last year, as evidenced by the .385 OBP. Look for more of a 2006 Hafner than 2007. I wouldn't call him a sleeper, but if he falls late into the second round, jump all over it. The 1B eligibility is nice, too.
6) Mark Teixeira (ATL) - Big Tex seemed a bit lost during the first half of the year in Arlington last year, but once he was traded to Atlanta, he mashed, with 56 RBI in 54 games. Look for strong run production this year.
7) Derrek Lee (CHC) - Even if the 46 HR of 2005 were a fluke, so long as Lee stays healthy he's going to have the opportunity to drive in a ton of runs this year; especially if the Cubs manage to acquire Brian Roberts from Baltimore.
8) Carlos Guillen (DET) - How good is this guy? He's got SS eligibility but his numbers play pretty well as a 1B, too. Should easily knock in over 100 runs and swipe a few bags. Less wear and tear on his body from the position switch will keep him fresher as the year goes on, too.
9) Carlos Pena (TBR) - OK, he's probably not going to 46 HR again this year. But he does have real power and with BJ Upton and Carl Crawford on base in front of him, he's going to have plenty of RBI opportunities. The .282 batting average likely isn't going to happen again, either. I'd pencil him in for about 35 HR and 120 RBI.
10) Lance Berkman (HOU) - Berkman's numbers were down last year, and that Houston lineup is just going to be terrible. He may get some protection from newly-acquired Miguel Tejada, depending on how their lineup shakes out, though.
Worth a Look: James Loney (LAD)
Fantasy Preview by Position: Catcher
The catcher is a weird position in fantasy baseball, because there's really such a drop-off after the top 1-2 guys, usually. Typically I go with a guy that's going to bolster my batting average and OBP if possible, since you can get high power numbers will poor on base skills at other positions easily.
1) Victor Martinez (CLE) - An offensive machine; numbers are so good that he's passable as a 1B (which he's also eligible for). Slugged 25 HR with 114 RBIs, tops for catchers last year.
2) Russell Martin (LAD) - Nice all around player in a stronger Dodgers lineup; will probably bat second so he should score a bunch of runs. Likes to run and could steal 20+ bases again.
3) Jorge Posada (NYY) - Won't repeat his off-the-charts hitting in '08 (.338 BA, .426 OBP in '07) but power numbers will still be there in that Yankee lineup.
4) Brian McCann (ATL) - Nice power numbers and will continue to improve at the plate.
5) Bengie Molina (SFG) - Poor OBP, but drove in over 80 runs in that wasteland which is the Giants' lineup last year.
6) Joe Mauer (MIN) - Personally I think this guy is way overrated. Strong OBP for a catcher but little else. He'll never hit .340 again as he did in '06, and his legs are starting to give him trouble - not a good sign for a 24 year old.
7) Kenji Johjima (SEA) - Solid average guy (.287 last year) with some pop. You could do much worse.
8) Jarrod Saltalamacchia (TEX) - Tons of upside and a nice hitters' park, but a lousy lineup and the fact he'll either split time behind the dish with Gerald Laird or play a lot of first base may ruin his concentration at the plate.
9) AJ Pierzynski (CHW) - Boy, the White Sox lineup is going to be bad, but Pierzynski still gives you something - and is generally available pretty late in the draft (if taken at all).
10) Ramon Hernandez (BAL) - I don't expect a ton out of him with no support in the Baltimore lineup, plus his recent injury history; but if healthy has some pop.
Worth a Look: JR Towles (HOU), Geovany Soto (CHC)
1) Victor Martinez (CLE) - An offensive machine; numbers are so good that he's passable as a 1B (which he's also eligible for). Slugged 25 HR with 114 RBIs, tops for catchers last year.
2) Russell Martin (LAD) - Nice all around player in a stronger Dodgers lineup; will probably bat second so he should score a bunch of runs. Likes to run and could steal 20+ bases again.
3) Jorge Posada (NYY) - Won't repeat his off-the-charts hitting in '08 (.338 BA, .426 OBP in '07) but power numbers will still be there in that Yankee lineup.
4) Brian McCann (ATL) - Nice power numbers and will continue to improve at the plate.
5) Bengie Molina (SFG) - Poor OBP, but drove in over 80 runs in that wasteland which is the Giants' lineup last year.
6) Joe Mauer (MIN) - Personally I think this guy is way overrated. Strong OBP for a catcher but little else. He'll never hit .340 again as he did in '06, and his legs are starting to give him trouble - not a good sign for a 24 year old.
7) Kenji Johjima (SEA) - Solid average guy (.287 last year) with some pop. You could do much worse.
8) Jarrod Saltalamacchia (TEX) - Tons of upside and a nice hitters' park, but a lousy lineup and the fact he'll either split time behind the dish with Gerald Laird or play a lot of first base may ruin his concentration at the plate.
9) AJ Pierzynski (CHW) - Boy, the White Sox lineup is going to be bad, but Pierzynski still gives you something - and is generally available pretty late in the draft (if taken at all).
10) Ramon Hernandez (BAL) - I don't expect a ton out of him with no support in the Baltimore lineup, plus his recent injury history; but if healthy has some pop.
Worth a Look: JR Towles (HOU), Geovany Soto (CHC)
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Thoughts on the congressional hearings
So I watched a good portion of the congressional hearings yesterday featuring select members of the United States Congress grilling Roger Clemens and former trainer Brian McNamee in a "he said / he said" showdown. You know the back story - McNamee explicitly named Clemens in the Mitchell Report; Clemens is either innocent, a big liar, and/or far too much an egomaniac to let these things be said about him and ruin his legacy as one of the top modern pitchers in history. A couple of thoughts:
The fallout from all of this? I suspect that they will further look into this case and potentially turn it over to the US Department of Justice if they feel Clemens has perjured himself. I'd be inclined to say he'll never face jail time - then again, look at Marion Jones.
Either way, Roger Clemens is already guilty in the court of public opinion, and likely won't see the Hall of Fame again unless he buys a ticket.
- Roger looked pretty uncomfortable. I can't say I'd feel much better sitting amongst the group he was in.
- McNamee just looks like a shady character to me. But he seems more believable than Clemens - doesn't that speak volumes?
- Andy Pettitte needed to be there. He probably chose to rat out his friend rather than perjure himself under oath, and by sending a signed affidavit rather than physically appearing, he avoided a showdown with Clemens. This way Roger was able to play the "he doesn't know what he's talking about / he misunderstood" card since Pettitte isn't there to refute this.
- I thought it was very unprofessional the way that several members of Congress led into their questions by first telling Clemens that he was one of their favorite players, or apologizing to him for the fact that they were about to start grilling him.
- Clemens had a lot of nerve interrupting Congressman Waxman during the closing statements.
- Not that I'm surprised, but the partisanship shown by those asking questions was pretty blatant. Republicans backed Clemens and attacked McNamee as a drug-pusher; Democrats were anti-Roger. I've heard Clemens is a friend of the Republican party, so no surprise. But it sickens me that partisanship always takes precedence, even in issues that should glaringly be non-partisan.
The fallout from all of this? I suspect that they will further look into this case and potentially turn it over to the US Department of Justice if they feel Clemens has perjured himself. I'd be inclined to say he'll never face jail time - then again, look at Marion Jones.
Either way, Roger Clemens is already guilty in the court of public opinion, and likely won't see the Hall of Fame again unless he buys a ticket.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Omar Minaya's highway robbery
On September 18, 2007, I analyzed whether or not I thought the Minnesota Twins would ultimately trade All Star starting pitcher Johan Santana. At the end of the article, I concluded that I felt that they *should* but that they probably wouldn't.
Well, I was wrong. On both counts.
We can skip the back story; Santana had one more year on his contract and the Twins are clearly in a state of flux. He's the best pitcher on the planet, sports a ridiculous changeup, and he's left-handed. Oh yeah, and he's not even 30. Once the Twins decided that Santana would be on the market, everybody knew the players - it was probably going to be any team that could afford the bounty in prospects plus the cost of a lengthy contract extension that would approach $150 million over anywhere between 5-7 years. That set of critera seemingly narrowed the list to the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, and White Sox, give or take.
By early December reports were already surfacing that the Yankees were interested, of course. Starting pitching has been a weakness of theirs since they were able to trot out starters named Clemens, Pettitte, Hernandez, Wells, or Cone on any given day. They made it clear that Joba Chamberlain was off the table from the get-go. Not that they had a real need for Santana, but once the Red Sox knew the Yankees were in on him, Boston told Minnesota that they too were interested. Looking back, did Boston EVER want Santana or were they just trying to drive the price up for the Yankees? I strongly sense the latter, for what ended up transpiring.
After a bit of jockeying, the Twins wanted a package led by SP Phil Hughes, CF Melky Cabrera, and SP Ian Kennedy from the Yankees. You could tell that new Twins GM Bill Smith had Yankees GM Brian Cashman on one line and Red Sox GM Theo Epstein on the other, putting each on hold to play both sides against eachother. Every step of the way, Boston matched the Yankees' offer. When all was said and done, media reports said that the Yankees were close... then the Red Sox were close... and so on, and so forth. Boston had two packages on the table; one featuring lefty SP Jon Lester plus top prospects SS Jed Lowrie and P Justin Masterson; the other with CF Jacoby Ellsbury in place of Lester.
At a certain point the Twins reached a standstill and neither Boston nor New York were going to offer anything more than what was on the table. The Twins tried to get Lester and Ellsbury in the same package to no avail; they pushed hard for Ian Kennedy. Epstein and Cashman held their ground. Finally, the Yankees moved first and took Phil Hughes (the real prize of their offer) off the table. I assume that's about the time that Bill Smith called Epstein and was probably ready to accept either offer; Boston then wasn't going to part with as much because they knew New York had pulled Hughes.
Tired of being played against one another (or, conversely, Boston had just effectively done their job of driving the Yankees' price up OR making sure they didn't get Santana at all costs) neither Boston nor New York had any interest in making a deal. New York had been vocal about not wanting to part with Hughes AND have to pay the kind of money Santana was going to command. That's when both of the Twins' potential trade partners fell through. With February around the corner and spring training rapidly approaching, the Twins needed to either get the deal done, or play the cards they were dealt and head into 2008 with Johan.
Enter the Mets. Sensing that Bill Smith was getting desperate to make a move, GM Omar Minaya negotiated and ultimately secured a deal for the best pitcher alive without sending Minnesota anybody on his major league roster OR his top prospect (OF Fernando Martinez). Pitchers Philip Humber (still not 100% back from Tommy John surgery), Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, and OF Carlos Gomez netted the Mets a new ace. Throw in about $145 million, and the deal was done for New York.
A classic case of overplaying your hand. Will these four Mets prospects amount to anything? Time will tell. But one can only assume that either Hughes or Lester will probably have better careers than Humber, Mulvey, or Guerra. And Jacoby Ellsbury, Coco Crisp (also rumored in a Boston deal), and maybe even Melky Cabrera will likely have better runs than the all-speed, no-power Gomez.
One more thing to think about - the Twins actually got more for Matt Garza from Tampa Bay than they did for Johan Santana. Wouldn't it have made more sense to go for it in 2008 and snag a few compensatory picks for Santana after he signed elsewhere after the season ended?
Well, I was wrong. On both counts.
We can skip the back story; Santana had one more year on his contract and the Twins are clearly in a state of flux. He's the best pitcher on the planet, sports a ridiculous changeup, and he's left-handed. Oh yeah, and he's not even 30. Once the Twins decided that Santana would be on the market, everybody knew the players - it was probably going to be any team that could afford the bounty in prospects plus the cost of a lengthy contract extension that would approach $150 million over anywhere between 5-7 years. That set of critera seemingly narrowed the list to the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, and White Sox, give or take.
By early December reports were already surfacing that the Yankees were interested, of course. Starting pitching has been a weakness of theirs since they were able to trot out starters named Clemens, Pettitte, Hernandez, Wells, or Cone on any given day. They made it clear that Joba Chamberlain was off the table from the get-go. Not that they had a real need for Santana, but once the Red Sox knew the Yankees were in on him, Boston told Minnesota that they too were interested. Looking back, did Boston EVER want Santana or were they just trying to drive the price up for the Yankees? I strongly sense the latter, for what ended up transpiring.
After a bit of jockeying, the Twins wanted a package led by SP Phil Hughes, CF Melky Cabrera, and SP Ian Kennedy from the Yankees. You could tell that new Twins GM Bill Smith had Yankees GM Brian Cashman on one line and Red Sox GM Theo Epstein on the other, putting each on hold to play both sides against eachother. Every step of the way, Boston matched the Yankees' offer. When all was said and done, media reports said that the Yankees were close... then the Red Sox were close... and so on, and so forth. Boston had two packages on the table; one featuring lefty SP Jon Lester plus top prospects SS Jed Lowrie and P Justin Masterson; the other with CF Jacoby Ellsbury in place of Lester.
At a certain point the Twins reached a standstill and neither Boston nor New York were going to offer anything more than what was on the table. The Twins tried to get Lester and Ellsbury in the same package to no avail; they pushed hard for Ian Kennedy. Epstein and Cashman held their ground. Finally, the Yankees moved first and took Phil Hughes (the real prize of their offer) off the table. I assume that's about the time that Bill Smith called Epstein and was probably ready to accept either offer; Boston then wasn't going to part with as much because they knew New York had pulled Hughes.
Tired of being played against one another (or, conversely, Boston had just effectively done their job of driving the Yankees' price up OR making sure they didn't get Santana at all costs) neither Boston nor New York had any interest in making a deal. New York had been vocal about not wanting to part with Hughes AND have to pay the kind of money Santana was going to command. That's when both of the Twins' potential trade partners fell through. With February around the corner and spring training rapidly approaching, the Twins needed to either get the deal done, or play the cards they were dealt and head into 2008 with Johan.
Enter the Mets. Sensing that Bill Smith was getting desperate to make a move, GM Omar Minaya negotiated and ultimately secured a deal for the best pitcher alive without sending Minnesota anybody on his major league roster OR his top prospect (OF Fernando Martinez). Pitchers Philip Humber (still not 100% back from Tommy John surgery), Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, and OF Carlos Gomez netted the Mets a new ace. Throw in about $145 million, and the deal was done for New York.
A classic case of overplaying your hand. Will these four Mets prospects amount to anything? Time will tell. But one can only assume that either Hughes or Lester will probably have better careers than Humber, Mulvey, or Guerra. And Jacoby Ellsbury, Coco Crisp (also rumored in a Boston deal), and maybe even Melky Cabrera will likely have better runs than the all-speed, no-power Gomez.
One more thing to think about - the Twins actually got more for Matt Garza from Tampa Bay than they did for Johan Santana. Wouldn't it have made more sense to go for it in 2008 and snag a few compensatory picks for Santana after he signed elsewhere after the season ended?
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