The sweepstakes has begun. As I (and everybody else in the free world) predicted, Alex Rodriguez opted out of his contract with the New York Yankees during the clinching game 4 of the World Series. Superagent Scott Boras' stipulation combined with a monster season for Rodriguez is about to lead to a BIG payday for the soon-to-be three-time AL MVP.
But where's he going next to rack up more stats and chase the home run record?
Here are my thoughts. There's only a small group of teams who can and would pay the bounty on A-Rod. Boras is selling A-Rod as a player who's going to recoup the cost of his contract for the team that's going to pay it via the revenue generated for the franchise. Having a regional sports network (RSN) is a key to this scenario; the teams that own their own RSNs reap the benefits of the exclusive rights to the majority of their broadcasts of their games on television. So let's take a look at the teams with RSNs:
New England Sports Network - Boston Red Sox
Mid-Atlantic Sports Network - Baltimore Orioles & Washington Nationals
YES Network - New York Yankees
Rogers Sports Network - Toronto Blue Jays
Turner Broadcast Station - Atlanta Braves
Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia - Philadelphia Phillies
Comcast SportsNet Chicago - Chicago White Sox & Chicago Cubs
Royals Sports Television Network - Kansas City Royals
SportsNet NY - New York Mets
Sportstime Ohio (STO) - Cleveland Indians
WGN - Chicago Cubs
The Nationals, Blue Jays, Braves, Phillies, Royals, and Indians don't have the type of payroll to support A-Rod - so let's take them off the list.
Let's also look at the top 10 payrolls in Major League Baseball in the 2007 season, to get an idea of the teams with the money and willingness to spend it on a player that's likely going to cost at LEAST 25% of their 2008 payroll:
1) New York Yankees
2) Boston Red Sox
3) New York Mets
4) Chicago White Sox
5) Los Angeles Angels
6) Los Angeles Dodgers
7) Seattle Mariners
8) Chicago Cubs
9) Detroit Tigers
10) Baltimore Orioles
Collectively, between the two lists, you're getting an idea of the type of team that's going to be in the market for Rodriguez. The overlap is the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Orioles, White Sox, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, Mariners, and Tigers.
Here's my list, from 10 to 1, in order of least likely to sign A-Rod versus most likely.
10) Seattle Mariners - A-Rod is not well liked in the pacific northwest after unceremoniously leaving Seattle for the Texas Rangers. Going after Rodriguez would likely alienate the fanbase. Besides, with 3B Adrian Beltre and SS Yuniesky Betancourt, the Mariners appear to be set on the left side of the infield for a few years.
9) Baltimore Orioles - The Orioles are in a state of flux right now, having not experienced much success in almost 10 years. Their roster is old and overpaid. I can't see signing A-Rod would help the cause - they're better off trading some of their position players and rebuilding with young pitching. Hopefully new GM Andy MacPhail feels the same way, or else it's going to be quite a while in the doldrums for the Orioles' faithful.
8) New York Yankees - No sir. If the organization has any integrity, they shouldn't be listed here as a possibility. Rodriguez opted out without even meeting with them, and GM Brian Cashman has repeatedly stated that if he opted out, the Yankees were not going to be bidding. With Florida 3B Miguel Cabrera on the trade market as well as other possibilites (the White Sox' Joe Crede, Rockies' Garrett Atkins, Rangers' Hank Blalock) the Yankees can afford to pass on A-Rod and either trade for one of the aforementioned, go with an in-house option, or sign somebody like Pedro Feliz. The caveat here is that the Yankees are going to offer Rodriguez arbitration to be sure that they get compensatory draft picks when he signs elsewhere. If Boras finds that he won't be paid what he wants, and Rodriguez accepts arbitration, the Yankees wind up with him for another year at probably around $30 million. But this is also a long shot.
7) Chicago Cubs - With a new ownership in transition and a LOT of money tied up in several recent acquisitions, resignings, or extensions, I doubt the Cubs will be able to throw $30+ at A-Rod this winter. They owe an awful lot of money to Carlos Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Ted Lilly. However, A-Rod did love playing for Lou Piniella back in Seattle...
6) Boston Red Sox - I don't see it happening. After winning the World Series with Mike Lowell at third base, why mess with success? Boston fans hate Rodriguez and love Lowell; Lowell comes at roughly 1/3 of the cost, and the guy just won the MVP. His hard-nosed, gritty clutch play is loved in the Boston clubhouse. I'd be willing to bet he'll resign with Boston for about 3 years and close to $40 million - a little more than 1 year of A-Rod!
5) Chicago White Sox - GM Kenny Williams has commented that he likes Rodriguez in the past, and A-Rod almost seemed like a good fit until the Sox resigned Juan Uribe to play short today. Joe Crede will likely be traded and youngster Josh Fields should be manning the hot corner for the White Sox in 2008. They could certainly be a darkhorse candidate and I wouldn't count them out.
4) Los Angeles Dodgers - I have a hard time believing that Dodgers' GM Ned Colletti will bother with a Scott Boras client again so soon, after JD Drew burned him last offseason by opting out of his contract to sign with the Red Sox. Dodger Stadium isn't a great hitters' park, but there is a hole at 3B as new manager Joe Torre will not likely want to go with young 3B prospect Andy LaRoche.
3) Detroit Tigers - Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has a good working relationship with Scott Boras, with a few of his clients under contract (Ivan Rodriguez, Kenny Rogers, Magglio Ordonez) and a definite hole at 3B (Brandon Inge). The Tigers have shown a willingless to spend money in the recent past and have become much more competitive for it.
2) Los Angeles Angels - The Angels have had a hole at third base ever since Troy Glaus left a few seasons ago. A-Rod is almost a perfect fit - a huge bat to hit behind Vladimir Guerrerro. He'd make their lineup ferocious. The one problem is that I don't know how well Guerrerro would appreciate making roughly 1/3 the money that A-Rod would be making, especially since they've been comparable hitters the past few years. Maybe a bit of an extension for Guerrerro would make him feel better?
1) New York Mets - Yep, this is my pick. GM Omar Minaya loves Latino players... A-Rod was a Mets fan growing up... it works out too well. They certainly don't mind spending money and this move would push their franchise onto the back pages of the New York papers by making the kind of splash that helps their franchise AND takes the best player from the rival Yankees. The marketing in New York would be absolutely huge. My only concern would be the spacious Shea Stadium, but Scott Boras could probably have them move the walls in on the soon-to-be-built Citi Field for A-Rod's sake. The major dilemma, of course, is where to play him. One thing's for sure: Jose Reyes isn't moving. I doubt they'd put Rodriguez at 2B and make him change positions again; most likely current 3B David Wright would move somewhere - right field? Second base? First base? Regardless, that should be enough to put the Mets over the top in 2008 and for years to come.
