Monday, October 22, 2007

Predictions: World Series

Well, not a bad LCS round for me - I had Colorado in 5 and Boston in 7. I was off by one game total - I'll take that!

Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox

The first question that will need to be answered is, of course, whether or not the Rockies will be able to sustain the momentum of only losing one of their last 22 games. Beyond that, this could very well be a slugfest of a series. The middle of Colorado's order, anchored by likely MVP Matt Holliday, is ferocious; on the other side, JD Drew has been on fire to compliment the middle of the Red Sox order, including ol' faithfuls Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. The winner of this series will be decided by the pitching. I have to give the bullpen edge to Colorado; however, Boston's starters are more experienced. I think the layoff will have the Rockies' pitching rested and rearing to go - if the hitters can stay on their game, they'll give Boston a handful. Ultimately, I'm taking Colorado in 6.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Should the Yankees retain Joe Torre?

As the latest Yankee postseason failure has recently come to an end, Yankee fans are dividing into two groups - those who vehemently defend manager Joe Torre and those who are looking for some new blood from the position he's held since the 1996 season.

By this point, anybody reading this probably knows Torre's track record: Twelve straight postseason appearances. Ten division titles. Six World Series appearances - four world championships. Hard to argue with that, right?

Let's keep something in mind though. New York has and always will be a "what have you done for me lately?" kinda town.

Now, let's break Torre's Yankee tenure into two groups: 1996-2001, and then 2002-2007. The former group: 6 playoff apperances, 5 division titles, 5 World Series appearances, 4 championships. The latter group: 6 playoff appearances, 5 division titles, 1 World Series appearance, ZERO championships. That's zilch, nada, none.. you get it. Keep that in mind.

I think the stretch he had until 2001 was fantastic. He had a great group of guys; a nice blend of homegrown talent and smart free agent acquisitions. After the 2001 season, Paul O'Neill and Scott Brosius both retired, two guys who had been instrumental pieces of the Yankees' run, who embodied tough work and hustle. At this point, Yankee owner George Steinbrenner decided to buy every free agent under the sun in hopes of bringing marquee stars to New York, increase revenue, and continue to win championships. Somewhere along the line, we'd realize that you can't, in fact, buy chemistry, something that the yesteryear Yankees had in droves.

So that brings us to 2007, a third straight year of an early ALDS exit, and a declining effort in each of those years. The 2005 defeat to the Angels went 5 games; 2006 versus the Tigers had the Yankees jump out 1-0 and led in game 2 before losing the series in 4 games; this most recent series against the Indians really had the Yankees asleep at the wheel for their 4 game loss.

So can the blame be placed on Torre? One side will say "he's given a $200 million payroll every year, who COULDN'T achieve some form of success with resources like theirs?" And that *is* accurate to an extent. A highly payroll guarantees nothing, especially when you consider that nearly $70 million was being paid to the combination of Mike Mussina, Kyle Farnsworth, Roger Clemens, Carl Pavano, and Jason Giambi; five players who didn't contribute all that many victories to the Yankees this year. But a payroll of that amount also means that the Yankees were capable of trotting out an All Star player at all 9 positions on Opening Day and the greatest closer of all time. It also means that when their pitching was hurting, they went out and threw $20 million at Roger Clemens to pull him out of retirement. These are things that most MLB teams simply can't do, and with that, their competitiveness is almost a sure thing year after year.

It's also important to note exactly how poor of an in-game manager Joe Torre actually is; all one would need to do is watch a few games. He never bunts, and rarely calls for stolen bases or hit-and-runs. His handling of the pitching staff is particularly atrocious; every year, he picks out a reliever or two and rides them into the ground, to the point where they're never effective again (see: Nelson, Jeff; Sturtze, Tanyon; and Quantrill, Paul). He pulls his starter too early or leaves him in too late. He's far too loyal to his veterans and will stick with slumping stars no matter what. Conversely, he's a great manager of egos (particularly important in a clubhouse full of multi-millionaires), and handles the vicious New York media with grace.

Chances are, Torre could manage this Yankee team to the playoffs for another five years in a row. Truth is, most any other manager in baseball could, as well. As it is, however, these teams haven't been built to win in the playoffs. Blame Steinbrenner, blame GM Brian Cashman; either way, Torre plays the hand he's been dealt. No matter how you slice it. three straight years of being bumped out in the first round doesn't help his cause.

I think had he gotten at *least* to the ALCS in any of these years, or even had his team COMPETE in the first round the past 2 years, it might not even be a discussion. But if the team isn't ready to play, that's on the manager, and it has to be pinned on Torre at this juncture.

I think it's been a great ride for Yankee fans, but I also think a little fresh blood couldn't hurt. Will Mariano Rivera really balk at returning if Torre is not offered a new contract? Jorge Posada? Will this influence Alex Rodriguez' decision? These are also things that may be considered by the Yanks' brass in the coming days and weeks. Ultimately, I can see one of two situations panning out: Torre is given yet another two year extension so he can open the new Yankee Stadium in 2009 with the team, or he's offered an upstairs job with the organization, with young blood in the form of Joe Girardi or Don Mattingly managing the team in 2008.

In closing. when discussing ANYTHING Yankee-related, it's important not to forget - 29 MLB teams' goal every year is to make the playoffs - the other team's goal is to win the World Series. What would happen if you didn't accomplish your goals at work?

Monday, October 8, 2007

Championship Series Playoff Predictions

OK, so I went 3 for 4 in the LDS round. Not too bad, but who really thought the D-Backs were going to take out the Cubs? In a SWEEP no less? But I digress...

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

It's hard not to love the Rockies right now. They fought their way into the playoffs, winning the one game against the Padres to make it in, then promptly disposed of the Philadelphia Phillies in three games. I am *still* not on the Diamondbacks bandwagon; they've been getting it done with smoke and mirrors all year long. After Brandon Webb, who's pitching these other games? Doug Davis? Livan Hernandez?

By the same token, the Rockies' starters not named Jeff Francis don't intimidate many hitters, either. However, the Rox' lineup is MUCH stronger, and I will take Colorado in 5.

American League

Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

Besides the pitching of Fausto Carmona, nothing about the Indians really impressed me during their defeat of the Yankees. They used horrible umpiring, bloop hits, and a swarm of Lake Erie midges to dispatch the Bronx Bombers. All their pitching had to do was throw reasonably well against the Yankees' poor starters to get by. The decision to not pitch CC Sabathia on short rest in the deciding game 4 of the ALDS proved to be a wise one, as they'll now have their co-aces ready to start games 1 & 2 at Fenway Park.

Boston has now had the chance to rest up and can line their pitching anyway they see fit. Curt Schilling will likely slide into the #2 spot behind Josh Beckett, as Daisuke Matsuzaka was less than memorable in his start against the Angels.

I think this will be a very interesting series. The Red Sox are a better team on paper, and it's really difficult to pick against them. Then again, in a seven game sseries, they'd be looking at four games total of Sabathia and Carmona; a tough challenge. I'll still take Boston in 7.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

National League Division Series Playoff Predictions

Well, October baseball means playoff baseball, but tonight we were treated to an extra regular season game, with the Rockies taking on the Padres for the fourth and final playoff spot in the NL. And what a game it was! Continuing the trend from yesterday, here's my predictions for NL half of the bracket:

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The Padres were kind of in a damned-if-they-do, damned-if-they-don't situation with Jake Peavy, the soon to be Cy Young Award winner: either pitch him in the deciding one game playoff against Colorado and lose him for the first 2 games of the Division Series, or don't pitch him and risk starting a pitcher that's not their ace in the most important game of the year. Unfortunately for the Phillies, that's irrelevant now, because the Rockies pitched Josh Fogg, meaning they'll have their ace, Jeff Francis, ready to go in Game 1. The Rox' offense is electric, and they're one of the hottest teams in baseball, seemingly coming out of nowhere to snatch the NL Wild Card by winning 14 of their last 15 games. They'll still have to deal with the best offense in the National League, a team light on starting pitching, but with a solid bullpen. I think the Rockies come in on fire and will take this series in 5 games.

Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Though the Diamondbacks had the best record in the NL, I was not and am still not sold on their team. I just don't see much in the rotation beyond Brandon Webb; despite a solid back of the bullpen and youthful core, I think this team is built to to win in 2-3 years, but they're not ready. On the other hand, I feel as if Chicago may very well be the team to beat in the NL. They have three very good starters in Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Rich Hill, and fantastic hitters; their weaknesses would be a suspect bullpen and poor outfield defense. But I think this team is deep enough to win the NL, which is a crapshoot in and of itself. Cubs in 4.