American League Division Series Playoff Predictions

Well, the AL side of the bracket is ready to go, and we'll have to wait til tomorrow night to see who's going to represent the NL as the wild card. Until then, here are my predictions for the ALDS:

Boston Red Sox vs. Anaheim Angels

Anaheim typically does not play well in Boston - drawing the Yankees would have been a much more favorable matchup for the Angels. Manny Ramirez finally looks like he's ready to rejoin the team after taking the last month off, and if Boston's firing on all cylinders, they'll be awfully tough. The only questions about the Red Sox is the state of their rotation - after Josh Beckett, they'll trot out a suddenly very old Curt Schilling, an awful Tim Wakefield, and an out-of-gas, overworked Daisuke Matsuzaka. I still can't pick against Beantown here, so I'm saying Boston wins in 4.

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians

This series is much tougher to call. Taking into account the way that the Yankees manhandled the Tigers last regular season only to be outclassed in 4... it's important to remember to wipe the slate clean, so to speak. Cleveland is going to pitch ace C.C. Sabathia twice, which actually doesn't really sway me - the Yankees actually hit the good pitchers really well; it's the journeymen and rookies that usually wind up with 7 innings of 3 hit ball against them.

Regardless, I have ZERO faith in this Yankee team this year, so I don't even have my hopes up. They either put up 15 runs in a game, or nobody hits at all; 5 straight games of quality starts, or a week where no starter gets out of the 4th inning. All that said, I I'm taking Cleveland in 5.

What will the Twins do with Johan?

As the Minnesota Twins are about to enter the 2007 offseason with no playoff birth, they are forced to entertain an uncomfortable situation: what to do with multiple Cy Young Award winning pitcher Johan Santana?

Santana signed with the Houston Astros as a free agent out of his native Venezuela in 1995, at age 16. He toiled in the Astros' farm system before being selected by the Florida Marlins in the 1999 Rule 5 draft and traded to the Twins that very same day. He was used as both a starter and reliever during callups with the Twins from 2000-2003. In 2004, he won his first Cy Young Award for playoff-bound Minnesota, posting a 20-6 record, along with league-leading totals of 256 strikeouts and a 2.61 ERA.

He followed up that season with another sub-3.00 ERA in 2005, going 16-7 and once again leading the world in strikeouts. In 2006, he won his second Cy Young, sporting a 19-6 record and 2.77 ERA. At this point he'd developed into the best pitcher in baseball, a high velocity left-hander with a devastating changeup. As of 2007, he's made three consecutive All Star games and has more strikeouts than anybody in baseball since 2004.

The 28 year old enters 2008 as his final season under the Minnesota organization's control, before he can test free agency for the first time. There's clearly no better pitcher in baseball. He's dominant in the second half every year, and is yet to spend time on the disabled list. Essentially, he can name his price after next year and somebody's going to pay up. For as dominant as he's been in the American League, imagine the numbers he'd put up in the lighter-hitting National League? He could have a legitimate chance of winning 25 games for a contending NL team.

This puts the Twins in quite a predicament. Their low budget clearly can't afford him beyond next season, but he's still quite a piece of the puzzle if they hope to make a run. With the return of potential ace Francisco Liriano from Tommy John surgery, as well as the further improved Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, and Kevin Slowey, the Twins have the chance for a fantastic young rotation in 2008. This is also one of the final seasons they'll have with young studs Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. In other words, this may be the last chance they have to be highly competitive for the next few years. CF Torii Hunter will almost certainly leave after this season due to their restrictive budget.

The flipside is trading Santana this winter. The return could be huge; in all likelihood, the Twins could probably get back a premier prospect (or two), a major league-ready hitter, and a pitcher. Every team would like to have him - it'd just have to be one with the prospects to get it done. Would the Yankees trade somebody like Phil Hughes ina package for one year of Johan? Would the Red Sox move Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury? Maybe the Devil Rays would try and swap some of their outfield depth?

Either way, Johan Santana will not be pitching for the Twins in 2009. Management has to step back and evaluate whether or not they can make a serious push in 2008. That likely depends on the health of Francisco Liriano, and whether or not they can make some other moves to add some more pop to the lineup. When Rondell White is your everyday DH and hitting around .150, you've got serious trouble. Their outfield is clogged with terrible hitters. Third base, a power position, is occupied by Nick Punto and his .205 batting average (and one home run!) They need to make some serious moves to upgrade this offense to have a chance to contend. Doesn't matter if your pitching staff has a collective 3 ERA for the season, with this offense (and subtracting 100+ RBIs from Torii Hunter) they won't be able to contend.

So, the question is: will the Twins trade Johan Santana this winter? Ultimately, I don't think they will. But for the good of the organization, they should.

End of year award predictions

End of the season awards are just around the corner, and here are my picks:

American League

Manager of the Year - Terry Francona. The Red Sox have sat in first place for nearly the entire season. He's dealt with a good deal of injuries, and so long as the Red Sox don't cough up the division in these final weeks, he doesn't really have much competition.

Rookie of the Year - Dustin Pedroia. Another race with really no competition. Hideki Okajima has had a fine season for Boston, as well, but I personally don't believe in giving 10-year Japanese vets the Major League Rookie of the Year. That doesn't disqualify him in the eyes of the voters, obviously, but Pedroia's still outperformed him. He's consistently hit over .300 and played stellar defense at second base.

Cy Young Award - Josh Beckett - Now HERE'S a race. In the running would be John Lackey, C.C. Sabathia, Kelvim Escobar, and Chien-Ming Wang. I think this one comes down to who's going to win the most games, and right now that looks like Beckett. Add in a bunch of strikeouts and good peripherals otherwise, and he's had one heck of a turnaround from his lackluster 2006.

MVP - Alex Rodriguez - No contest here whatsoever. Next closest competition would be Magglio Ordonez of the Detroit Tigers, but A-Rod's numbers are just so out of this world that it's hard to make an argument for ANYBODY. Because the Yankees are going to be in Wild Card contention right down to the wire, it's difficult to even make the 'MVP should go to a player on a playoff team" argument, since his numbers are that ridiculous. But as it is, he's the unanimous pick.

National League

Manager of the Year - Bob Melvin - NOBODY expected the Arizona Diamondbacks to play .500 ball this year, let alone be leading the NL West in mid September. An argument could be made for Washington's Manny Acta, who's made a bit of lemonade from rotten lemons, but since this D-Backs team is likely going to represent their division in the NLDS in a few weeks, you've got to commend Melvin.

Rookie of the Year - Ryan Braun - Imagine what Milwaukee's Braun would have done over the course of an entire season? Despite being called up on May 25, he's hit .324, with 30 home runs and 83 RBI, either hitting in front of or behind Prince Fielder. He's also swiped 14 bags. Of course, he has no business with a third baseman's glove, but Milwaukee has decided they'll deal with his subpar defense for the extraordinary bat. (Why not move Billy Hall to 3B, Braun to LF, Cory Hart to CF, and platoon Kevin Mench and Geoff Jenkins?) Braun should be an offensive star for a long time.

Cy Young Award - Jake Peavy - I could hear a fair argument for Arizona's Brandon Webb, but beyond that nobody has either a) the wins, b) the strikeouts, or c) the ERA to support a CY nomination. Peavy has been a total ace this year, with a sub-2.50 ERA, and a decent shot at 20 wins, with ton of strikeouts to boot.

MVP - David Wright - This is a tough race to call, because there are a few worthy candidates. The Mets' David Wright, Brewers' Prince Fielder, or any of the Phillies' trio: Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley. Hanley Ramirez probably has the best numbers of all NL candidates, but the Marlins are so far out of it that he can't really be considered. Basically, it comes down to who's going to lead their team to first place. I actually think Fielder has done more for Milwaukee than Wright has for New York, but the fact is that Wright's hot second half has kept the Mets in first place, while Fielder's Brewers have been battling it out with the Cubs for weeks. That said, I'm choosing David Wright, and the MVPs this season will both be playing third base for New York.

Will A-Rod opt out?

Let me commence this inaugural blog by stating that I think the "opt-out" clause is, frankly, a load of crap. Basically, super-agent Scott Boras has used this as a negotiating tool for his clients - it allows the player to simply say "I don't want to play for Team X anymore, I'd rather become a free agent." Most recently, JD Drew exercised his clause after the 2006 season, angering the general manager of his former team, the Los Angeles Dodgers: "He wants out, he can have out. He's moving on, we're moving on. We'll find players who like playing here. If he doesn't want to be here, he has the right to leave, and he's exercising that right," said Ned Colletti.

This brings us to Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez, better known to everybody as A-Rod. After a 41 home run, 132 RBI season in Seattle (2000), Boras negotiated the largest contract ever given to a baseball player: 10 years, $252 million dollars to the highest bidder, the Texas Rangers. I assume that owner Tom Hicks was willing to do whatever he had to in order to save his franchise from another basement finish in the AL West. Part of this contract was an opt-out clause, stating that Rodriguez had the right to leave the Rangers after the 2007 season, if he wanted to. He played three years in Texas, winning an MVP, and was traded to the Yankees after the '03 season, for Alfonso Soriano.

Rodriguez had a tough adjustment period his first year in the Bronx, learning a new position (third base) and playing second fiddle to the superstar-laden lineup that was the 2004 New York Yankees. He won an MVP in 2005, but the big knock on A-Rod has been his inability to deliver in clutch situations during his tenure in pinstripes.

Let's fast forward.

A-Rod had a terrible year last year. Some of you would say "35 home runs? 121 RBIs? That's terrible?" Well, not if you've been putting up 45 homers a year, 140+ RBI, and batting well over .300 every year. Not to mention that the majority of those gaudy numbers were compiled in games that were out of reach, either in or out of the Yankees' favor. Tie game, bottom of the 8th? A-Rod would strike out or pop up. Seven run game, ninth inning? A-Rod's going yard. It became fairly predictable what he'd do. He was booed every time he failed to get a hit, and even sometimes when he'd hit a meaningless home run. The Bronx fans were venomous.

After a tumultuous (but brief) playoff exit to the World Series bound Detroit Tigers (in which Rodriguez was batted eighth in Detroit's clinching game), he went on record stating he wanted to remain a Yankee, and he did not want to be traded. In the early part of the 2007 season, he said that this year would decide whether or not he was going to be a Yankee beyond 2007, and it was apparent that it was based largely on the treatment he'd get from Yankee fans. "It's a do or die situation," he said on WFAN-AM's "Mike and the Mad Dog" show. "Either New York is going to kick me out of New York this year, say 'I've had enough of this guy, get him the hell out of here,' and we have an option. Or New York is going to say, 'Hey, we won a world championship, you had a big year, you were a part of it and we want you back... You're asking me what my sincere feeling is. I want to 100 percent stay in New York. Period. That's it. I don't know how many ways I can say it," he said on the show.

2007 has been a HUGE year for Rodriguez. With two weeks left in the regular season, he's hit over 50 home runs, and is a legitimate shot to be the first 150 RBI, 150 runs scored player since some guy named Ted Williams in 1949. He's also muscled his way into the top 10 in batting average, and will probably steal more than 25 bases. No one in the American League is even on his continent in terms of numbers, and he probably could have set out the month of September and still easily won his third MVP award.

Scott Boras has dollar signs in his eyes. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has stated he would not negotiate with A-Rod should he decide to opt out after this season, stating that the money he'll forfeit that's being paid by the Texas Rangers is too much to make up the difference (Texas is paying roughly $10 million per year). It's almost a foregone conclusion he'll turn around and stick his tongue out at Yankee fans, and opt out, all along paying lip service about how he wants to remain a Yankee and win a championship in pinstripes. He could then land in Boston, Chicago, or Los Angeles, three big-market teams with the payroll to accomodate a $30 million per year player.

Evidently, making $27 million per year isn't enough money. Yankee fans will certainly miss the home runs and the RBIs, but they won't miss the prima donna attitude and ridiculous on-field antics (slapping the ball out of Bronson Arroyo's glove in the 2004 ALCS, yelling "HA!" at Toronto Blue Jays infielder Howie Clark during a May game this year).

So, A-Rod will opt out, because he's all about the money. If he really were about winning, he would never have signed with a lousy Texas team in 2001. He's interested in cementing his legacy as the best player in baseball history, one who should easily shatter the home run record in a few years. Maybe he'll choose the friendly confines of Fenway Park to pad onto his home run totals? Or maybe Brian Cashman will step back and say, "you know what? This guy DID opt out, and I DID say I wouldn't negotiate with him if he did so - but after all the money I've wasted on pitchers (Kei Igawa, Carl Pavano, Mike Mussina's extension, 4 months of Roger Clemens for $18 million), I've GOT to be able to afford a guy who's a sure thing to help this team win every day for the next 8 years."

Yes, Rodriguez will opt out. The real question is whether or not Brian Cashman will bite the bullet and go back on his word to spend a ton more money on this guy.

One more note on the "opt out" clause: I think it's the biggest joke in sports. What's the point of signing with a franchise if one side has the power to walk out of the terms that they signed on for? At least football has it right - non-guaranteed contracts which are protection for the team, not just the player. An "opt out" clause is totally unfair and protects only the player. But that's a topic for another day...