Opinions on some transactions...

Weighing in on some of the more significant transactions so far in the MLB offseason...

Free Agent signings

Brewers sign C Jason Kendall to a one year contract worth $4.25M

After trading Johnny Estrada to the Mets, I guess they decided to go with defense over pop at the plate, but Kendall just can't hit. And for over $4 million? I would have probably went after Paul Lo Duca, a bit more pop for roughly the same amount of money. But that's just me. Grade: C

Reds sign CL Francisco Cordero to a four year contract worth $46M

Wow, after basically given to Milwaukee by the Rangers, one good year makes the guy an $11.5M per year pitcher? Clearly more indicative of the market - but overpaying has been the norm this year. Well, maybe it's not overpaying if EVERYBODY is doing it - it's just the baseball economy. At any rate, Cordero was clearly the best closer available this offseason (since nobody really thought Mariano Rivera would leave the Yankees) and I like the fit for Cincinnati. Their bullpen is still suspect, but sliding David Weathers back into the more comfortable 8th inning setup role should give them about 3 more wins than last year. Unfortunately, now the Reds probably don't have any more money to spend this offseason. Grade: B+

Yankees re-signed C Jorge Posada to a four year contract worth $52.4M

Nobody really expected Posada to leave the Yankees, except maybe for the crosstown Mets. But the Bronx Bombers threw enough cash at him to make sure that wouldn't happen. Four years for a 36 year old catcher though? By year three (maybe even the latter part of two) Posada will likely be the starting 1B or DH for New York. He had a career year with the bat, so no reason to think the decline will happen overnight - but with older catchers, you just never know. Risky move. Grade: B-, if only for the contract length. A two year deal would have been an A+ move. Four years is far too long.

Rays signed CL Troy Percival to a two year contract worth $8M

I love this deal. Love it. Percival pitched to a 1.80 ERA for the Cardinals in 2007, a year after retiring due to arm troubles. He got a clean slate of health by the Rays' physicians prior to the deal - and at $4M per, this was a no-brainer. The caveat: the Cardinals' reluctance to use Percival on back-to-back days may be an indication that they felt either his arm couldn't handle it or his conditioning was poor. For the Rays' sake, they hope it was the latter. With Al Reyes and Percival at the back of the bullpen, Tampa Bay won't be blowing as many saves as years past. Grade: A

Astros signed 2B Kaz Matsui to a three year contract worth $16.5M

Why? Matsui has largely been terrible since coming to America with the Mets, and aside from part of last year (and really only at Coors Field) he's consistently remained fairly terrible. If I were the Astros I would have re-signed Mark Loretta and handed him the starting job, or finally promoted Chris Burke. Looks like Burke will get traded after waiting years for Craig Biggio to retire. Life's not fair! Grade: D


Trades

Twins traded SP Matt Garza, P Eduardo Morlan, and SS Jason Bartlett to Rays for OF Delmon Young, OF Jason Pridie, and IF Brendan Harris

Not often do you see teams swapping young potential stars, if only for the factor that they don't want them to come back and bite them in the rear down the road. Tampa turned its surplus of outfielders into a major piece of its 2008 rotation by acquiring Garza from Minnesota, a team with a dearth of young starting pitching. Very even. Beyond the two marquee names, the trade favors Tampa, improving their SS defense and production with Bartlett and getting the flame-throwing prospect Morlan. I'll call this one in favor of Tampa, but I like it for both teams.

Mets traded OF Lastings Milledge to Nationals for OF Ryan Church and C Brian Schneider

I had to do about a triple-take when I saw the headline for this. Did the Mets really trade Lastings Milledge for NOTHING? Apparently so. As recently as 2005, Milledge was going to be the centerpiece in a deal for Manny Ramirez, but negotiations fell apart. He, along with Aaron Heilman, was going to Oakland for Barry Zito, but that never happened. A few cups of coffee with the Mets since, and the guy's value plummets so low that he's traded for one of the worst hitting catchers in baseball and a fourth OF / platoon player? A head scratcher, for sure, especially considering the Mets acquired Johnny Estrada to be their starting catcher a few weeks prior to this trade. With Milledge, Washington gets an outfielder with lightning-fast bat speed and an attitude problem, which is a gamble I'm sure they were willing to take for what they gave up. Nationals take this in a landslide.

Nationals traded P Glenn Gibson to Rays for OF Elijah Dukes

I must admit that I've never heard of Gibson. This trade was a case of the Rays basically giving Dukes away, after his poor attitude and legal run-ins cost him his good graces in Tampa. He wasn't going to play for Tampa again, so getting anything was a bonus. Still, he's young and has upside, so make this two in a row for the Nationals.

White Sox traded 1B Chris Carter to Diamondbacks for OF Carlos Quentin

Carlos Quentin was a highly regarded prospect for Arizona whom they balked at throwing into the Randy Johnson deal with the Yankees last year. He spent the year up with the big club in 2007 and didn't really impress, spending time on the DL and battling general ineffectiveness at the plate. Carter played the year at single A, hitting 25 homers and nearly knocking in 100 runs. The jury is out on this one, but since Carter seems to be so far away, I'm giving this to Chicago. After all, depending on how things shake out, Quentin may be their starting left fielder on opening day 2008.

Where's A-Rod headed?

The sweepstakes has begun. As I (and everybody else in the free world) predicted, Alex Rodriguez opted out of his contract with the New York Yankees during the clinching game 4 of the World Series. Superagent Scott Boras' stipulation combined with a monster season for Rodriguez is about to lead to a BIG payday for the soon-to-be three-time AL MVP.

But where's he going next to rack up more stats and chase the home run record?

Here are my thoughts. There's only a small group of teams who can and would pay the bounty on A-Rod. Boras is selling A-Rod as a player who's going to recoup the cost of his contract for the team that's going to pay it via the revenue generated for the franchise. Having a regional sports network (RSN) is a key to this scenario; the teams that own their own RSNs reap the benefits of the exclusive rights to the majority of their broadcasts of their games on television. So let's take a look at the teams with RSNs:

New England Sports Network - Boston Red Sox
Mid-Atlantic Sports Network - Baltimore Orioles & Washington Nationals
YES Network - New York Yankees
Rogers Sports Network - Toronto Blue Jays
Turner Broadcast Station - Atlanta Braves
Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia - Philadelphia Phillies
Comcast SportsNet Chicago - Chicago White Sox & Chicago Cubs
Royals Sports Television Network - Kansas City Royals
SportsNet NY - New York Mets
Sportstime Ohio (STO) - Cleveland Indians
WGN - Chicago Cubs

The Nationals, Blue Jays, Braves, Phillies, Royals, and Indians don't have the type of payroll to support A-Rod - so let's take them off the list.

Let's also look at the top 10 payrolls in Major League Baseball in the 2007 season, to get an idea of the teams with the money and willingness to spend it on a player that's likely going to cost at LEAST 25% of their 2008 payroll:

1) New York Yankees
2) Boston Red Sox
3) New York Mets
4) Chicago White Sox
5) Los Angeles Angels
6) Los Angeles Dodgers
7) Seattle Mariners
8) Chicago Cubs
9) Detroit Tigers
10) Baltimore Orioles

Collectively, between the two lists, you're getting an idea of the type of team that's going to be in the market for Rodriguez. The overlap is the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Orioles, White Sox, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, Mariners, and Tigers.

Here's my list, from 10 to 1, in order of least likely to sign A-Rod versus most likely.

10) Seattle Mariners - A-Rod is not well liked in the pacific northwest after unceremoniously leaving Seattle for the Texas Rangers. Going after Rodriguez would likely alienate the fanbase. Besides, with 3B Adrian Beltre and SS Yuniesky Betancourt, the Mariners appear to be set on the left side of the infield for a few years.

9) Baltimore Orioles - The Orioles are in a state of flux right now, having not experienced much success in almost 10 years. Their roster is old and overpaid. I can't see signing A-Rod would help the cause - they're better off trading some of their position players and rebuilding with young pitching. Hopefully new GM Andy MacPhail feels the same way, or else it's going to be quite a while in the doldrums for the Orioles' faithful.

8) New York Yankees - No sir. If the organization has any integrity, they shouldn't be listed here as a possibility. Rodriguez opted out without even meeting with them, and GM Brian Cashman has repeatedly stated that if he opted out, the Yankees were not going to be bidding. With Florida 3B Miguel Cabrera on the trade market as well as other possibilites (the White Sox' Joe Crede, Rockies' Garrett Atkins, Rangers' Hank Blalock) the Yankees can afford to pass on A-Rod and either trade for one of the aforementioned, go with an in-house option, or sign somebody like Pedro Feliz. The caveat here is that the Yankees are going to offer Rodriguez arbitration to be sure that they get compensatory draft picks when he signs elsewhere. If Boras finds that he won't be paid what he wants, and Rodriguez accepts arbitration, the Yankees wind up with him for another year at probably around $30 million. But this is also a long shot.

7) Chicago Cubs - With a new ownership in transition and a LOT of money tied up in several recent acquisitions, resignings, or extensions, I doubt the Cubs will be able to throw $30+ at A-Rod this winter. They owe an awful lot of money to Carlos Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Ted Lilly. However, A-Rod did love playing for Lou Piniella back in Seattle...

6) Boston Red Sox - I don't see it happening. After winning the World Series with Mike Lowell at third base, why mess with success? Boston fans hate Rodriguez and love Lowell; Lowell comes at roughly 1/3 of the cost, and the guy just won the MVP. His hard-nosed, gritty clutch play is loved in the Boston clubhouse. I'd be willing to bet he'll resign with Boston for about 3 years and close to $40 million - a little more than 1 year of A-Rod!

5) Chicago White Sox - GM Kenny Williams has commented that he likes Rodriguez in the past, and A-Rod almost seemed like a good fit until the Sox resigned Juan Uribe to play short today. Joe Crede will likely be traded and youngster Josh Fields should be manning the hot corner for the White Sox in 2008. They could certainly be a darkhorse candidate and I wouldn't count them out.

4) Los Angeles Dodgers - I have a hard time believing that Dodgers' GM Ned Colletti will bother with a Scott Boras client again so soon, after JD Drew burned him last offseason by opting out of his contract to sign with the Red Sox. Dodger Stadium isn't a great hitters' park, but there is a hole at 3B as new manager Joe Torre will not likely want to go with young 3B prospect Andy LaRoche.

3) Detroit Tigers - Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has a good working relationship with Scott Boras, with a few of his clients under contract (Ivan Rodriguez, Kenny Rogers, Magglio Ordonez) and a definite hole at 3B (Brandon Inge). The Tigers have shown a willingless to spend money in the recent past and have become much more competitive for it.

2) Los Angeles Angels - The Angels have had a hole at third base ever since Troy Glaus left a few seasons ago. A-Rod is almost a perfect fit - a huge bat to hit behind Vladimir Guerrerro. He'd make their lineup ferocious. The one problem is that I don't know how well Guerrerro would appreciate making roughly 1/3 the money that A-Rod would be making, especially since they've been comparable hitters the past few years. Maybe a bit of an extension for Guerrerro would make him feel better?

1) New York Mets - Yep, this is my pick. GM Omar Minaya loves Latino players... A-Rod was a Mets fan growing up... it works out too well. They certainly don't mind spending money and this move would push their franchise onto the back pages of the New York papers by making the kind of splash that helps their franchise AND takes the best player from the rival Yankees. The marketing in New York would be absolutely huge. My only concern would be the spacious Shea Stadium, but Scott Boras could probably have them move the walls in on the soon-to-be-built Citi Field for A-Rod's sake. The major dilemma, of course, is where to play him. One thing's for sure: Jose Reyes isn't moving. I doubt they'd put Rodriguez at 2B and make him change positions again; most likely current 3B David Wright would move somewhere - right field? Second base? First base? Regardless, that should be enough to put the Mets over the top in 2008 and for years to come.

Predictions: World Series

Well, not a bad LCS round for me - I had Colorado in 5 and Boston in 7. I was off by one game total - I'll take that!

Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox

The first question that will need to be answered is, of course, whether or not the Rockies will be able to sustain the momentum of only losing one of their last 22 games. Beyond that, this could very well be a slugfest of a series. The middle of Colorado's order, anchored by likely MVP Matt Holliday, is ferocious; on the other side, JD Drew has been on fire to compliment the middle of the Red Sox order, including ol' faithfuls Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. The winner of this series will be decided by the pitching. I have to give the bullpen edge to Colorado; however, Boston's starters are more experienced. I think the layoff will have the Rockies' pitching rested and rearing to go - if the hitters can stay on their game, they'll give Boston a handful. Ultimately, I'm taking Colorado in 6.

Should the Yankees retain Joe Torre?

As the latest Yankee postseason failure has recently come to an end, Yankee fans are dividing into two groups - those who vehemently defend manager Joe Torre and those who are looking for some new blood from the position he's held since the 1996 season.

By this point, anybody reading this probably knows Torre's track record: Twelve straight postseason appearances. Ten division titles. Six World Series appearances - four world championships. Hard to argue with that, right?

Let's keep something in mind though. New York has and always will be a "what have you done for me lately?" kinda town.

Now, let's break Torre's Yankee tenure into two groups: 1996-2001, and then 2002-2007. The former group: 6 playoff apperances, 5 division titles, 5 World Series appearances, 4 championships. The latter group: 6 playoff appearances, 5 division titles, 1 World Series appearance, ZERO championships. That's zilch, nada, none.. you get it. Keep that in mind.

I think the stretch he had until 2001 was fantastic. He had a great group of guys; a nice blend of homegrown talent and smart free agent acquisitions. After the 2001 season, Paul O'Neill and Scott Brosius both retired, two guys who had been instrumental pieces of the Yankees' run, who embodied tough work and hustle. At this point, Yankee owner George Steinbrenner decided to buy every free agent under the sun in hopes of bringing marquee stars to New York, increase revenue, and continue to win championships. Somewhere along the line, we'd realize that you can't, in fact, buy chemistry, something that the yesteryear Yankees had in droves.

So that brings us to 2007, a third straight year of an early ALDS exit, and a declining effort in each of those years. The 2005 defeat to the Angels went 5 games; 2006 versus the Tigers had the Yankees jump out 1-0 and led in game 2 before losing the series in 4 games; this most recent series against the Indians really had the Yankees asleep at the wheel for their 4 game loss.

So can the blame be placed on Torre? One side will say "he's given a $200 million payroll every year, who COULDN'T achieve some form of success with resources like theirs?" And that *is* accurate to an extent. A highly payroll guarantees nothing, especially when you consider that nearly $70 million was being paid to the combination of Mike Mussina, Kyle Farnsworth, Roger Clemens, Carl Pavano, and Jason Giambi; five players who didn't contribute all that many victories to the Yankees this year. But a payroll of that amount also means that the Yankees were capable of trotting out an All Star player at all 9 positions on Opening Day and the greatest closer of all time. It also means that when their pitching was hurting, they went out and threw $20 million at Roger Clemens to pull him out of retirement. These are things that most MLB teams simply can't do, and with that, their competitiveness is almost a sure thing year after year.

It's also important to note exactly how poor of an in-game manager Joe Torre actually is; all one would need to do is watch a few games. He never bunts, and rarely calls for stolen bases or hit-and-runs. His handling of the pitching staff is particularly atrocious; every year, he picks out a reliever or two and rides them into the ground, to the point where they're never effective again (see: Nelson, Jeff; Sturtze, Tanyon; and Quantrill, Paul). He pulls his starter too early or leaves him in too late. He's far too loyal to his veterans and will stick with slumping stars no matter what. Conversely, he's a great manager of egos (particularly important in a clubhouse full of multi-millionaires), and handles the vicious New York media with grace.

Chances are, Torre could manage this Yankee team to the playoffs for another five years in a row. Truth is, most any other manager in baseball could, as well. As it is, however, these teams haven't been built to win in the playoffs. Blame Steinbrenner, blame GM Brian Cashman; either way, Torre plays the hand he's been dealt. No matter how you slice it. three straight years of being bumped out in the first round doesn't help his cause.

I think had he gotten at *least* to the ALCS in any of these years, or even had his team COMPETE in the first round the past 2 years, it might not even be a discussion. But if the team isn't ready to play, that's on the manager, and it has to be pinned on Torre at this juncture.

I think it's been a great ride for Yankee fans, but I also think a little fresh blood couldn't hurt. Will Mariano Rivera really balk at returning if Torre is not offered a new contract? Jorge Posada? Will this influence Alex Rodriguez' decision? These are also things that may be considered by the Yanks' brass in the coming days and weeks. Ultimately, I can see one of two situations panning out: Torre is given yet another two year extension so he can open the new Yankee Stadium in 2009 with the team, or he's offered an upstairs job with the organization, with young blood in the form of Joe Girardi or Don Mattingly managing the team in 2008.

In closing. when discussing ANYTHING Yankee-related, it's important not to forget - 29 MLB teams' goal every year is to make the playoffs - the other team's goal is to win the World Series. What would happen if you didn't accomplish your goals at work?

Championship Series Playoff Predictions

OK, so I went 3 for 4 in the LDS round. Not too bad, but who really thought the D-Backs were going to take out the Cubs? In a SWEEP no less? But I digress...

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

It's hard not to love the Rockies right now. They fought their way into the playoffs, winning the one game against the Padres to make it in, then promptly disposed of the Philadelphia Phillies in three games. I am *still* not on the Diamondbacks bandwagon; they've been getting it done with smoke and mirrors all year long. After Brandon Webb, who's pitching these other games? Doug Davis? Livan Hernandez?

By the same token, the Rockies' starters not named Jeff Francis don't intimidate many hitters, either. However, the Rox' lineup is MUCH stronger, and I will take Colorado in 5.

American League

Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

Besides the pitching of Fausto Carmona, nothing about the Indians really impressed me during their defeat of the Yankees. They used horrible umpiring, bloop hits, and a swarm of Lake Erie midges to dispatch the Bronx Bombers. All their pitching had to do was throw reasonably well against the Yankees' poor starters to get by. The decision to not pitch CC Sabathia on short rest in the deciding game 4 of the ALDS proved to be a wise one, as they'll now have their co-aces ready to start games 1 & 2 at Fenway Park.

Boston has now had the chance to rest up and can line their pitching anyway they see fit. Curt Schilling will likely slide into the #2 spot behind Josh Beckett, as Daisuke Matsuzaka was less than memorable in his start against the Angels.

I think this will be a very interesting series. The Red Sox are a better team on paper, and it's really difficult to pick against them. Then again, in a seven game sseries, they'd be looking at four games total of Sabathia and Carmona; a tough challenge. I'll still take Boston in 7.

National League Division Series Playoff Predictions

Well, October baseball means playoff baseball, but tonight we were treated to an extra regular season game, with the Rockies taking on the Padres for the fourth and final playoff spot in the NL. And what a game it was! Continuing the trend from yesterday, here's my predictions for NL half of the bracket:

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The Padres were kind of in a damned-if-they-do, damned-if-they-don't situation with Jake Peavy, the soon to be Cy Young Award winner: either pitch him in the deciding one game playoff against Colorado and lose him for the first 2 games of the Division Series, or don't pitch him and risk starting a pitcher that's not their ace in the most important game of the year. Unfortunately for the Phillies, that's irrelevant now, because the Rockies pitched Josh Fogg, meaning they'll have their ace, Jeff Francis, ready to go in Game 1. The Rox' offense is electric, and they're one of the hottest teams in baseball, seemingly coming out of nowhere to snatch the NL Wild Card by winning 14 of their last 15 games. They'll still have to deal with the best offense in the National League, a team light on starting pitching, but with a solid bullpen. I think the Rockies come in on fire and will take this series in 5 games.

Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Though the Diamondbacks had the best record in the NL, I was not and am still not sold on their team. I just don't see much in the rotation beyond Brandon Webb; despite a solid back of the bullpen and youthful core, I think this team is built to to win in 2-3 years, but they're not ready. On the other hand, I feel as if Chicago may very well be the team to beat in the NL. They have three very good starters in Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Rich Hill, and fantastic hitters; their weaknesses would be a suspect bullpen and poor outfield defense. But I think this team is deep enough to win the NL, which is a crapshoot in and of itself. Cubs in 4.

American League Division Series Playoff Predictions

Well, the AL side of the bracket is ready to go, and we'll have to wait til tomorrow night to see who's going to represent the NL as the wild card. Until then, here are my predictions for the ALDS:

Boston Red Sox vs. Anaheim Angels

Anaheim typically does not play well in Boston - drawing the Yankees would have been a much more favorable matchup for the Angels. Manny Ramirez finally looks like he's ready to rejoin the team after taking the last month off, and if Boston's firing on all cylinders, they'll be awfully tough. The only questions about the Red Sox is the state of their rotation - after Josh Beckett, they'll trot out a suddenly very old Curt Schilling, an awful Tim Wakefield, and an out-of-gas, overworked Daisuke Matsuzaka. I still can't pick against Beantown here, so I'm saying Boston wins in 4.

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians

This series is much tougher to call. Taking into account the way that the Yankees manhandled the Tigers last regular season only to be outclassed in 4... it's important to remember to wipe the slate clean, so to speak. Cleveland is going to pitch ace C.C. Sabathia twice, which actually doesn't really sway me - the Yankees actually hit the good pitchers really well; it's the journeymen and rookies that usually wind up with 7 innings of 3 hit ball against them.

Regardless, I have ZERO faith in this Yankee team this year, so I don't even have my hopes up. They either put up 15 runs in a game, or nobody hits at all; 5 straight games of quality starts, or a week where no starter gets out of the 4th inning. All that said, I I'm taking Cleveland in 5.

What will the Twins do with Johan?

As the Minnesota Twins are about to enter the 2007 offseason with no playoff birth, they are forced to entertain an uncomfortable situation: what to do with multiple Cy Young Award winning pitcher Johan Santana?

Santana signed with the Houston Astros as a free agent out of his native Venezuela in 1995, at age 16. He toiled in the Astros' farm system before being selected by the Florida Marlins in the 1999 Rule 5 draft and traded to the Twins that very same day. He was used as both a starter and reliever during callups with the Twins from 2000-2003. In 2004, he won his first Cy Young Award for playoff-bound Minnesota, posting a 20-6 record, along with league-leading totals of 256 strikeouts and a 2.61 ERA.

He followed up that season with another sub-3.00 ERA in 2005, going 16-7 and once again leading the world in strikeouts. In 2006, he won his second Cy Young, sporting a 19-6 record and 2.77 ERA. At this point he'd developed into the best pitcher in baseball, a high velocity left-hander with a devastating changeup. As of 2007, he's made three consecutive All Star games and has more strikeouts than anybody in baseball since 2004.

The 28 year old enters 2008 as his final season under the Minnesota organization's control, before he can test free agency for the first time. There's clearly no better pitcher in baseball. He's dominant in the second half every year, and is yet to spend time on the disabled list. Essentially, he can name his price after next year and somebody's going to pay up. For as dominant as he's been in the American League, imagine the numbers he'd put up in the lighter-hitting National League? He could have a legitimate chance of winning 25 games for a contending NL team.

This puts the Twins in quite a predicament. Their low budget clearly can't afford him beyond next season, but he's still quite a piece of the puzzle if they hope to make a run. With the return of potential ace Francisco Liriano from Tommy John surgery, as well as the further improved Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, and Kevin Slowey, the Twins have the chance for a fantastic young rotation in 2008. This is also one of the final seasons they'll have with young studs Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. In other words, this may be the last chance they have to be highly competitive for the next few years. CF Torii Hunter will almost certainly leave after this season due to their restrictive budget.

The flipside is trading Santana this winter. The return could be huge; in all likelihood, the Twins could probably get back a premier prospect (or two), a major league-ready hitter, and a pitcher. Every team would like to have him - it'd just have to be one with the prospects to get it done. Would the Yankees trade somebody like Phil Hughes ina package for one year of Johan? Would the Red Sox move Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury? Maybe the Devil Rays would try and swap some of their outfield depth?

Either way, Johan Santana will not be pitching for the Twins in 2009. Management has to step back and evaluate whether or not they can make a serious push in 2008. That likely depends on the health of Francisco Liriano, and whether or not they can make some other moves to add some more pop to the lineup. When Rondell White is your everyday DH and hitting around .150, you've got serious trouble. Their outfield is clogged with terrible hitters. Third base, a power position, is occupied by Nick Punto and his .205 batting average (and one home run!) They need to make some serious moves to upgrade this offense to have a chance to contend. Doesn't matter if your pitching staff has a collective 3 ERA for the season, with this offense (and subtracting 100+ RBIs from Torii Hunter) they won't be able to contend.

So, the question is: will the Twins trade Johan Santana this winter? Ultimately, I don't think they will. But for the good of the organization, they should.

End of year award predictions

End of the season awards are just around the corner, and here are my picks:

American League

Manager of the Year - Terry Francona. The Red Sox have sat in first place for nearly the entire season. He's dealt with a good deal of injuries, and so long as the Red Sox don't cough up the division in these final weeks, he doesn't really have much competition.

Rookie of the Year - Dustin Pedroia. Another race with really no competition. Hideki Okajima has had a fine season for Boston, as well, but I personally don't believe in giving 10-year Japanese vets the Major League Rookie of the Year. That doesn't disqualify him in the eyes of the voters, obviously, but Pedroia's still outperformed him. He's consistently hit over .300 and played stellar defense at second base.

Cy Young Award - Josh Beckett - Now HERE'S a race. In the running would be John Lackey, C.C. Sabathia, Kelvim Escobar, and Chien-Ming Wang. I think this one comes down to who's going to win the most games, and right now that looks like Beckett. Add in a bunch of strikeouts and good peripherals otherwise, and he's had one heck of a turnaround from his lackluster 2006.

MVP - Alex Rodriguez - No contest here whatsoever. Next closest competition would be Magglio Ordonez of the Detroit Tigers, but A-Rod's numbers are just so out of this world that it's hard to make an argument for ANYBODY. Because the Yankees are going to be in Wild Card contention right down to the wire, it's difficult to even make the 'MVP should go to a player on a playoff team" argument, since his numbers are that ridiculous. But as it is, he's the unanimous pick.

National League

Manager of the Year - Bob Melvin - NOBODY expected the Arizona Diamondbacks to play .500 ball this year, let alone be leading the NL West in mid September. An argument could be made for Washington's Manny Acta, who's made a bit of lemonade from rotten lemons, but since this D-Backs team is likely going to represent their division in the NLDS in a few weeks, you've got to commend Melvin.

Rookie of the Year - Ryan Braun - Imagine what Milwaukee's Braun would have done over the course of an entire season? Despite being called up on May 25, he's hit .324, with 30 home runs and 83 RBI, either hitting in front of or behind Prince Fielder. He's also swiped 14 bags. Of course, he has no business with a third baseman's glove, but Milwaukee has decided they'll deal with his subpar defense for the extraordinary bat. (Why not move Billy Hall to 3B, Braun to LF, Cory Hart to CF, and platoon Kevin Mench and Geoff Jenkins?) Braun should be an offensive star for a long time.

Cy Young Award - Jake Peavy - I could hear a fair argument for Arizona's Brandon Webb, but beyond that nobody has either a) the wins, b) the strikeouts, or c) the ERA to support a CY nomination. Peavy has been a total ace this year, with a sub-2.50 ERA, and a decent shot at 20 wins, with ton of strikeouts to boot.

MVP - David Wright - This is a tough race to call, because there are a few worthy candidates. The Mets' David Wright, Brewers' Prince Fielder, or any of the Phillies' trio: Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley. Hanley Ramirez probably has the best numbers of all NL candidates, but the Marlins are so far out of it that he can't really be considered. Basically, it comes down to who's going to lead their team to first place. I actually think Fielder has done more for Milwaukee than Wright has for New York, but the fact is that Wright's hot second half has kept the Mets in first place, while Fielder's Brewers have been battling it out with the Cubs for weeks. That said, I'm choosing David Wright, and the MVPs this season will both be playing third base for New York.

Will A-Rod opt out?

Let me commence this inaugural blog by stating that I think the "opt-out" clause is, frankly, a load of crap. Basically, super-agent Scott Boras has used this as a negotiating tool for his clients - it allows the player to simply say "I don't want to play for Team X anymore, I'd rather become a free agent." Most recently, JD Drew exercised his clause after the 2006 season, angering the general manager of his former team, the Los Angeles Dodgers: "He wants out, he can have out. He's moving on, we're moving on. We'll find players who like playing here. If he doesn't want to be here, he has the right to leave, and he's exercising that right," said Ned Colletti.

This brings us to Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez, better known to everybody as A-Rod. After a 41 home run, 132 RBI season in Seattle (2000), Boras negotiated the largest contract ever given to a baseball player: 10 years, $252 million dollars to the highest bidder, the Texas Rangers. I assume that owner Tom Hicks was willing to do whatever he had to in order to save his franchise from another basement finish in the AL West. Part of this contract was an opt-out clause, stating that Rodriguez had the right to leave the Rangers after the 2007 season, if he wanted to. He played three years in Texas, winning an MVP, and was traded to the Yankees after the '03 season, for Alfonso Soriano.

Rodriguez had a tough adjustment period his first year in the Bronx, learning a new position (third base) and playing second fiddle to the superstar-laden lineup that was the 2004 New York Yankees. He won an MVP in 2005, but the big knock on A-Rod has been his inability to deliver in clutch situations during his tenure in pinstripes.

Let's fast forward.

A-Rod had a terrible year last year. Some of you would say "35 home runs? 121 RBIs? That's terrible?" Well, not if you've been putting up 45 homers a year, 140+ RBI, and batting well over .300 every year. Not to mention that the majority of those gaudy numbers were compiled in games that were out of reach, either in or out of the Yankees' favor. Tie game, bottom of the 8th? A-Rod would strike out or pop up. Seven run game, ninth inning? A-Rod's going yard. It became fairly predictable what he'd do. He was booed every time he failed to get a hit, and even sometimes when he'd hit a meaningless home run. The Bronx fans were venomous.

After a tumultuous (but brief) playoff exit to the World Series bound Detroit Tigers (in which Rodriguez was batted eighth in Detroit's clinching game), he went on record stating he wanted to remain a Yankee, and he did not want to be traded. In the early part of the 2007 season, he said that this year would decide whether or not he was going to be a Yankee beyond 2007, and it was apparent that it was based largely on the treatment he'd get from Yankee fans. "It's a do or die situation," he said on WFAN-AM's "Mike and the Mad Dog" show. "Either New York is going to kick me out of New York this year, say 'I've had enough of this guy, get him the hell out of here,' and we have an option. Or New York is going to say, 'Hey, we won a world championship, you had a big year, you were a part of it and we want you back... You're asking me what my sincere feeling is. I want to 100 percent stay in New York. Period. That's it. I don't know how many ways I can say it," he said on the show.

2007 has been a HUGE year for Rodriguez. With two weeks left in the regular season, he's hit over 50 home runs, and is a legitimate shot to be the first 150 RBI, 150 runs scored player since some guy named Ted Williams in 1949. He's also muscled his way into the top 10 in batting average, and will probably steal more than 25 bases. No one in the American League is even on his continent in terms of numbers, and he probably could have set out the month of September and still easily won his third MVP award.

Scott Boras has dollar signs in his eyes. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has stated he would not negotiate with A-Rod should he decide to opt out after this season, stating that the money he'll forfeit that's being paid by the Texas Rangers is too much to make up the difference (Texas is paying roughly $10 million per year). It's almost a foregone conclusion he'll turn around and stick his tongue out at Yankee fans, and opt out, all along paying lip service about how he wants to remain a Yankee and win a championship in pinstripes. He could then land in Boston, Chicago, or Los Angeles, three big-market teams with the payroll to accomodate a $30 million per year player.

Evidently, making $27 million per year isn't enough money. Yankee fans will certainly miss the home runs and the RBIs, but they won't miss the prima donna attitude and ridiculous on-field antics (slapping the ball out of Bronson Arroyo's glove in the 2004 ALCS, yelling "HA!" at Toronto Blue Jays infielder Howie Clark during a May game this year).

So, A-Rod will opt out, because he's all about the money. If he really were about winning, he would never have signed with a lousy Texas team in 2001. He's interested in cementing his legacy as the best player in baseball history, one who should easily shatter the home run record in a few years. Maybe he'll choose the friendly confines of Fenway Park to pad onto his home run totals? Or maybe Brian Cashman will step back and say, "you know what? This guy DID opt out, and I DID say I wouldn't negotiate with him if he did so - but after all the money I've wasted on pitchers (Kei Igawa, Carl Pavano, Mike Mussina's extension, 4 months of Roger Clemens for $18 million), I've GOT to be able to afford a guy who's a sure thing to help this team win every day for the next 8 years."

Yes, Rodriguez will opt out. The real question is whether or not Brian Cashman will bite the bullet and go back on his word to spend a ton more money on this guy.

One more note on the "opt out" clause: I think it's the biggest joke in sports. What's the point of signing with a franchise if one side has the power to walk out of the terms that they signed on for? At least football has it right - non-guaranteed contracts which are protection for the team, not just the player. An "opt out" clause is totally unfair and protects only the player. But that's a topic for another day...