Where's A-Rod headed?

The sweepstakes has begun. As I (and everybody else in the free world) predicted, Alex Rodriguez opted out of his contract with the New York Yankees during the clinching game 4 of the World Series. Superagent Scott Boras' stipulation combined with a monster season for Rodriguez is about to lead to a BIG payday for the soon-to-be three-time AL MVP.

But where's he going next to rack up more stats and chase the home run record?

Here are my thoughts. There's only a small group of teams who can and would pay the bounty on A-Rod. Boras is selling A-Rod as a player who's going to recoup the cost of his contract for the team that's going to pay it via the revenue generated for the franchise. Having a regional sports network (RSN) is a key to this scenario; the teams that own their own RSNs reap the benefits of the exclusive rights to the majority of their broadcasts of their games on television. So let's take a look at the teams with RSNs:

New England Sports Network - Boston Red Sox
Mid-Atlantic Sports Network - Baltimore Orioles & Washington Nationals
YES Network - New York Yankees
Rogers Sports Network - Toronto Blue Jays
Turner Broadcast Station - Atlanta Braves
Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia - Philadelphia Phillies
Comcast SportsNet Chicago - Chicago White Sox & Chicago Cubs
Royals Sports Television Network - Kansas City Royals
SportsNet NY - New York Mets
Sportstime Ohio (STO) - Cleveland Indians
WGN - Chicago Cubs

The Nationals, Blue Jays, Braves, Phillies, Royals, and Indians don't have the type of payroll to support A-Rod - so let's take them off the list.

Let's also look at the top 10 payrolls in Major League Baseball in the 2007 season, to get an idea of the teams with the money and willingness to spend it on a player that's likely going to cost at LEAST 25% of their 2008 payroll:

1) New York Yankees
2) Boston Red Sox
3) New York Mets
4) Chicago White Sox
5) Los Angeles Angels
6) Los Angeles Dodgers
7) Seattle Mariners
8) Chicago Cubs
9) Detroit Tigers
10) Baltimore Orioles

Collectively, between the two lists, you're getting an idea of the type of team that's going to be in the market for Rodriguez. The overlap is the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Orioles, White Sox, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, Mariners, and Tigers.

Here's my list, from 10 to 1, in order of least likely to sign A-Rod versus most likely.

10) Seattle Mariners - A-Rod is not well liked in the pacific northwest after unceremoniously leaving Seattle for the Texas Rangers. Going after Rodriguez would likely alienate the fanbase. Besides, with 3B Adrian Beltre and SS Yuniesky Betancourt, the Mariners appear to be set on the left side of the infield for a few years.

9) Baltimore Orioles - The Orioles are in a state of flux right now, having not experienced much success in almost 10 years. Their roster is old and overpaid. I can't see signing A-Rod would help the cause - they're better off trading some of their position players and rebuilding with young pitching. Hopefully new GM Andy MacPhail feels the same way, or else it's going to be quite a while in the doldrums for the Orioles' faithful.

8) New York Yankees - No sir. If the organization has any integrity, they shouldn't be listed here as a possibility. Rodriguez opted out without even meeting with them, and GM Brian Cashman has repeatedly stated that if he opted out, the Yankees were not going to be bidding. With Florida 3B Miguel Cabrera on the trade market as well as other possibilites (the White Sox' Joe Crede, Rockies' Garrett Atkins, Rangers' Hank Blalock) the Yankees can afford to pass on A-Rod and either trade for one of the aforementioned, go with an in-house option, or sign somebody like Pedro Feliz. The caveat here is that the Yankees are going to offer Rodriguez arbitration to be sure that they get compensatory draft picks when he signs elsewhere. If Boras finds that he won't be paid what he wants, and Rodriguez accepts arbitration, the Yankees wind up with him for another year at probably around $30 million. But this is also a long shot.

7) Chicago Cubs - With a new ownership in transition and a LOT of money tied up in several recent acquisitions, resignings, or extensions, I doubt the Cubs will be able to throw $30+ at A-Rod this winter. They owe an awful lot of money to Carlos Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Ted Lilly. However, A-Rod did love playing for Lou Piniella back in Seattle...

6) Boston Red Sox - I don't see it happening. After winning the World Series with Mike Lowell at third base, why mess with success? Boston fans hate Rodriguez and love Lowell; Lowell comes at roughly 1/3 of the cost, and the guy just won the MVP. His hard-nosed, gritty clutch play is loved in the Boston clubhouse. I'd be willing to bet he'll resign with Boston for about 3 years and close to $40 million - a little more than 1 year of A-Rod!

5) Chicago White Sox - GM Kenny Williams has commented that he likes Rodriguez in the past, and A-Rod almost seemed like a good fit until the Sox resigned Juan Uribe to play short today. Joe Crede will likely be traded and youngster Josh Fields should be manning the hot corner for the White Sox in 2008. They could certainly be a darkhorse candidate and I wouldn't count them out.

4) Los Angeles Dodgers - I have a hard time believing that Dodgers' GM Ned Colletti will bother with a Scott Boras client again so soon, after JD Drew burned him last offseason by opting out of his contract to sign with the Red Sox. Dodger Stadium isn't a great hitters' park, but there is a hole at 3B as new manager Joe Torre will not likely want to go with young 3B prospect Andy LaRoche.

3) Detroit Tigers - Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has a good working relationship with Scott Boras, with a few of his clients under contract (Ivan Rodriguez, Kenny Rogers, Magglio Ordonez) and a definite hole at 3B (Brandon Inge). The Tigers have shown a willingless to spend money in the recent past and have become much more competitive for it.

2) Los Angeles Angels - The Angels have had a hole at third base ever since Troy Glaus left a few seasons ago. A-Rod is almost a perfect fit - a huge bat to hit behind Vladimir Guerrerro. He'd make their lineup ferocious. The one problem is that I don't know how well Guerrerro would appreciate making roughly 1/3 the money that A-Rod would be making, especially since they've been comparable hitters the past few years. Maybe a bit of an extension for Guerrerro would make him feel better?

1) New York Mets - Yep, this is my pick. GM Omar Minaya loves Latino players... A-Rod was a Mets fan growing up... it works out too well. They certainly don't mind spending money and this move would push their franchise onto the back pages of the New York papers by making the kind of splash that helps their franchise AND takes the best player from the rival Yankees. The marketing in New York would be absolutely huge. My only concern would be the spacious Shea Stadium, but Scott Boras could probably have them move the walls in on the soon-to-be-built Citi Field for A-Rod's sake. The major dilemma, of course, is where to play him. One thing's for sure: Jose Reyes isn't moving. I doubt they'd put Rodriguez at 2B and make him change positions again; most likely current 3B David Wright would move somewhere - right field? Second base? First base? Regardless, that should be enough to put the Mets over the top in 2008 and for years to come.

Predictions: World Series

Well, not a bad LCS round for me - I had Colorado in 5 and Boston in 7. I was off by one game total - I'll take that!

Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox

The first question that will need to be answered is, of course, whether or not the Rockies will be able to sustain the momentum of only losing one of their last 22 games. Beyond that, this could very well be a slugfest of a series. The middle of Colorado's order, anchored by likely MVP Matt Holliday, is ferocious; on the other side, JD Drew has been on fire to compliment the middle of the Red Sox order, including ol' faithfuls Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. The winner of this series will be decided by the pitching. I have to give the bullpen edge to Colorado; however, Boston's starters are more experienced. I think the layoff will have the Rockies' pitching rested and rearing to go - if the hitters can stay on their game, they'll give Boston a handful. Ultimately, I'm taking Colorado in 6.

Should the Yankees retain Joe Torre?

As the latest Yankee postseason failure has recently come to an end, Yankee fans are dividing into two groups - those who vehemently defend manager Joe Torre and those who are looking for some new blood from the position he's held since the 1996 season.

By this point, anybody reading this probably knows Torre's track record: Twelve straight postseason appearances. Ten division titles. Six World Series appearances - four world championships. Hard to argue with that, right?

Let's keep something in mind though. New York has and always will be a "what have you done for me lately?" kinda town.

Now, let's break Torre's Yankee tenure into two groups: 1996-2001, and then 2002-2007. The former group: 6 playoff apperances, 5 division titles, 5 World Series appearances, 4 championships. The latter group: 6 playoff appearances, 5 division titles, 1 World Series appearance, ZERO championships. That's zilch, nada, none.. you get it. Keep that in mind.

I think the stretch he had until 2001 was fantastic. He had a great group of guys; a nice blend of homegrown talent and smart free agent acquisitions. After the 2001 season, Paul O'Neill and Scott Brosius both retired, two guys who had been instrumental pieces of the Yankees' run, who embodied tough work and hustle. At this point, Yankee owner George Steinbrenner decided to buy every free agent under the sun in hopes of bringing marquee stars to New York, increase revenue, and continue to win championships. Somewhere along the line, we'd realize that you can't, in fact, buy chemistry, something that the yesteryear Yankees had in droves.

So that brings us to 2007, a third straight year of an early ALDS exit, and a declining effort in each of those years. The 2005 defeat to the Angels went 5 games; 2006 versus the Tigers had the Yankees jump out 1-0 and led in game 2 before losing the series in 4 games; this most recent series against the Indians really had the Yankees asleep at the wheel for their 4 game loss.

So can the blame be placed on Torre? One side will say "he's given a $200 million payroll every year, who COULDN'T achieve some form of success with resources like theirs?" And that *is* accurate to an extent. A highly payroll guarantees nothing, especially when you consider that nearly $70 million was being paid to the combination of Mike Mussina, Kyle Farnsworth, Roger Clemens, Carl Pavano, and Jason Giambi; five players who didn't contribute all that many victories to the Yankees this year. But a payroll of that amount also means that the Yankees were capable of trotting out an All Star player at all 9 positions on Opening Day and the greatest closer of all time. It also means that when their pitching was hurting, they went out and threw $20 million at Roger Clemens to pull him out of retirement. These are things that most MLB teams simply can't do, and with that, their competitiveness is almost a sure thing year after year.

It's also important to note exactly how poor of an in-game manager Joe Torre actually is; all one would need to do is watch a few games. He never bunts, and rarely calls for stolen bases or hit-and-runs. His handling of the pitching staff is particularly atrocious; every year, he picks out a reliever or two and rides them into the ground, to the point where they're never effective again (see: Nelson, Jeff; Sturtze, Tanyon; and Quantrill, Paul). He pulls his starter too early or leaves him in too late. He's far too loyal to his veterans and will stick with slumping stars no matter what. Conversely, he's a great manager of egos (particularly important in a clubhouse full of multi-millionaires), and handles the vicious New York media with grace.

Chances are, Torre could manage this Yankee team to the playoffs for another five years in a row. Truth is, most any other manager in baseball could, as well. As it is, however, these teams haven't been built to win in the playoffs. Blame Steinbrenner, blame GM Brian Cashman; either way, Torre plays the hand he's been dealt. No matter how you slice it. three straight years of being bumped out in the first round doesn't help his cause.

I think had he gotten at *least* to the ALCS in any of these years, or even had his team COMPETE in the first round the past 2 years, it might not even be a discussion. But if the team isn't ready to play, that's on the manager, and it has to be pinned on Torre at this juncture.

I think it's been a great ride for Yankee fans, but I also think a little fresh blood couldn't hurt. Will Mariano Rivera really balk at returning if Torre is not offered a new contract? Jorge Posada? Will this influence Alex Rodriguez' decision? These are also things that may be considered by the Yanks' brass in the coming days and weeks. Ultimately, I can see one of two situations panning out: Torre is given yet another two year extension so he can open the new Yankee Stadium in 2009 with the team, or he's offered an upstairs job with the organization, with young blood in the form of Joe Girardi or Don Mattingly managing the team in 2008.

In closing. when discussing ANYTHING Yankee-related, it's important not to forget - 29 MLB teams' goal every year is to make the playoffs - the other team's goal is to win the World Series. What would happen if you didn't accomplish your goals at work?

Championship Series Playoff Predictions

OK, so I went 3 for 4 in the LDS round. Not too bad, but who really thought the D-Backs were going to take out the Cubs? In a SWEEP no less? But I digress...

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

It's hard not to love the Rockies right now. They fought their way into the playoffs, winning the one game against the Padres to make it in, then promptly disposed of the Philadelphia Phillies in three games. I am *still* not on the Diamondbacks bandwagon; they've been getting it done with smoke and mirrors all year long. After Brandon Webb, who's pitching these other games? Doug Davis? Livan Hernandez?

By the same token, the Rockies' starters not named Jeff Francis don't intimidate many hitters, either. However, the Rox' lineup is MUCH stronger, and I will take Colorado in 5.

American League

Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

Besides the pitching of Fausto Carmona, nothing about the Indians really impressed me during their defeat of the Yankees. They used horrible umpiring, bloop hits, and a swarm of Lake Erie midges to dispatch the Bronx Bombers. All their pitching had to do was throw reasonably well against the Yankees' poor starters to get by. The decision to not pitch CC Sabathia on short rest in the deciding game 4 of the ALDS proved to be a wise one, as they'll now have their co-aces ready to start games 1 & 2 at Fenway Park.

Boston has now had the chance to rest up and can line their pitching anyway they see fit. Curt Schilling will likely slide into the #2 spot behind Josh Beckett, as Daisuke Matsuzaka was less than memorable in his start against the Angels.

I think this will be a very interesting series. The Red Sox are a better team on paper, and it's really difficult to pick against them. Then again, in a seven game sseries, they'd be looking at four games total of Sabathia and Carmona; a tough challenge. I'll still take Boston in 7.

National League Division Series Playoff Predictions

Well, October baseball means playoff baseball, but tonight we were treated to an extra regular season game, with the Rockies taking on the Padres for the fourth and final playoff spot in the NL. And what a game it was! Continuing the trend from yesterday, here's my predictions for NL half of the bracket:

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The Padres were kind of in a damned-if-they-do, damned-if-they-don't situation with Jake Peavy, the soon to be Cy Young Award winner: either pitch him in the deciding one game playoff against Colorado and lose him for the first 2 games of the Division Series, or don't pitch him and risk starting a pitcher that's not their ace in the most important game of the year. Unfortunately for the Phillies, that's irrelevant now, because the Rockies pitched Josh Fogg, meaning they'll have their ace, Jeff Francis, ready to go in Game 1. The Rox' offense is electric, and they're one of the hottest teams in baseball, seemingly coming out of nowhere to snatch the NL Wild Card by winning 14 of their last 15 games. They'll still have to deal with the best offense in the National League, a team light on starting pitching, but with a solid bullpen. I think the Rockies come in on fire and will take this series in 5 games.

Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Though the Diamondbacks had the best record in the NL, I was not and am still not sold on their team. I just don't see much in the rotation beyond Brandon Webb; despite a solid back of the bullpen and youthful core, I think this team is built to to win in 2-3 years, but they're not ready. On the other hand, I feel as if Chicago may very well be the team to beat in the NL. They have three very good starters in Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Rich Hill, and fantastic hitters; their weaknesses would be a suspect bullpen and poor outfield defense. But I think this team is deep enough to win the NL, which is a crapshoot in and of itself. Cubs in 4.

American League Division Series Playoff Predictions

Well, the AL side of the bracket is ready to go, and we'll have to wait til tomorrow night to see who's going to represent the NL as the wild card. Until then, here are my predictions for the ALDS:

Boston Red Sox vs. Anaheim Angels

Anaheim typically does not play well in Boston - drawing the Yankees would have been a much more favorable matchup for the Angels. Manny Ramirez finally looks like he's ready to rejoin the team after taking the last month off, and if Boston's firing on all cylinders, they'll be awfully tough. The only questions about the Red Sox is the state of their rotation - after Josh Beckett, they'll trot out a suddenly very old Curt Schilling, an awful Tim Wakefield, and an out-of-gas, overworked Daisuke Matsuzaka. I still can't pick against Beantown here, so I'm saying Boston wins in 4.

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians

This series is much tougher to call. Taking into account the way that the Yankees manhandled the Tigers last regular season only to be outclassed in 4... it's important to remember to wipe the slate clean, so to speak. Cleveland is going to pitch ace C.C. Sabathia twice, which actually doesn't really sway me - the Yankees actually hit the good pitchers really well; it's the journeymen and rookies that usually wind up with 7 innings of 3 hit ball against them.

Regardless, I have ZERO faith in this Yankee team this year, so I don't even have my hopes up. They either put up 15 runs in a game, or nobody hits at all; 5 straight games of quality starts, or a week where no starter gets out of the 4th inning. All that said, I I'm taking Cleveland in 5.

What will the Twins do with Johan?

As the Minnesota Twins are about to enter the 2007 offseason with no playoff birth, they are forced to entertain an uncomfortable situation: what to do with multiple Cy Young Award winning pitcher Johan Santana?

Santana signed with the Houston Astros as a free agent out of his native Venezuela in 1995, at age 16. He toiled in the Astros' farm system before being selected by the Florida Marlins in the 1999 Rule 5 draft and traded to the Twins that very same day. He was used as both a starter and reliever during callups with the Twins from 2000-2003. In 2004, he won his first Cy Young Award for playoff-bound Minnesota, posting a 20-6 record, along with league-leading totals of 256 strikeouts and a 2.61 ERA.

He followed up that season with another sub-3.00 ERA in 2005, going 16-7 and once again leading the world in strikeouts. In 2006, he won his second Cy Young, sporting a 19-6 record and 2.77 ERA. At this point he'd developed into the best pitcher in baseball, a high velocity left-hander with a devastating changeup. As of 2007, he's made three consecutive All Star games and has more strikeouts than anybody in baseball since 2004.

The 28 year old enters 2008 as his final season under the Minnesota organization's control, before he can test free agency for the first time. There's clearly no better pitcher in baseball. He's dominant in the second half every year, and is yet to spend time on the disabled list. Essentially, he can name his price after next year and somebody's going to pay up. For as dominant as he's been in the American League, imagine the numbers he'd put up in the lighter-hitting National League? He could have a legitimate chance of winning 25 games for a contending NL team.

This puts the Twins in quite a predicament. Their low budget clearly can't afford him beyond next season, but he's still quite a piece of the puzzle if they hope to make a run. With the return of potential ace Francisco Liriano from Tommy John surgery, as well as the further improved Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, and Kevin Slowey, the Twins have the chance for a fantastic young rotation in 2008. This is also one of the final seasons they'll have with young studs Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. In other words, this may be the last chance they have to be highly competitive for the next few years. CF Torii Hunter will almost certainly leave after this season due to their restrictive budget.

The flipside is trading Santana this winter. The return could be huge; in all likelihood, the Twins could probably get back a premier prospect (or two), a major league-ready hitter, and a pitcher. Every team would like to have him - it'd just have to be one with the prospects to get it done. Would the Yankees trade somebody like Phil Hughes ina package for one year of Johan? Would the Red Sox move Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury? Maybe the Devil Rays would try and swap some of their outfield depth?

Either way, Johan Santana will not be pitching for the Twins in 2009. Management has to step back and evaluate whether or not they can make a serious push in 2008. That likely depends on the health of Francisco Liriano, and whether or not they can make some other moves to add some more pop to the lineup. When Rondell White is your everyday DH and hitting around .150, you've got serious trouble. Their outfield is clogged with terrible hitters. Third base, a power position, is occupied by Nick Punto and his .205 batting average (and one home run!) They need to make some serious moves to upgrade this offense to have a chance to contend. Doesn't matter if your pitching staff has a collective 3 ERA for the season, with this offense (and subtracting 100+ RBIs from Torii Hunter) they won't be able to contend.

So, the question is: will the Twins trade Johan Santana this winter? Ultimately, I don't think they will. But for the good of the organization, they should.